Kamala Harris makes early gains

Is it a surprise that Vice President Kamala Harris, who is now Democratic presidential nominee, should steal a slight margin over her Republican rival Donald Trump with a 44 per cent to 42 per cent lead in a poll carried out by Reuters/Ipsos? There has been an electric change in the Democratic Party ever since President Joe Biden stepped down from the contest and endorsed the candidacy of Harris.

It is not the case that Biden was trailing in the popularity polls. He was lagging marginally behind Trump. So, the Democratic voters who stood by Biden continue to stand with Harris, but there is greater enthusiasm among voters because of 59-year-old Harris. The Democrat voters are going to hold steady. It is in the swing states that the election will be decided. Sceptics and Republican spin-doctors think that Harris’s improved ratings are due to the huge coverage in the media of her first few days after Biden’s exit from the race, and her endorsement by Biden, by many Democratic governors in the states, and finally the delegates to the Democratic National Convention (DNC) to be held in Chicago next month.

What seems to be going in favour of Harris is her comparatively young age of 59 compared to Biden’s 81 and Trump’s 78. Trump has expressed the view that it is easier for him to beat Harris than it is to beat Biden. Trump thinks that Harris is a political nobody.

The Trump calculation is likely to go wrong. There is a huge difference between Hillary Clinton, whom Trump beat in 2016, and Harris. Harris carries the vote of African-Americans, the Asians, especially the south Asian communities, and the women at large. That would be a large segment and it will be an uphill ask for anyone to beat that voter coalition. The battle has just begun, and Harris has to hold her own till November 5 in the face of tremendous political and right-wing media assault on her.

So far, Harris has held her own quite well, but here it is the question of keeping cool in the face of the frenzy of Trump and his followers. Right now, Harris is poised and cheerful, something which may win over the sceptics among the voters cutting across party lines.

In a very short time, Harris has been able to raise a campaign fund of $81 million, much higher than that of Trump. That is a sign of strength and popularity for any presidential candidate. Harris has now the backing of important women politicians of the Democratic party, including former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren. Both of them come from different ends of the political spectrum in a manner of speaking.

Clinton is the quintessential establishment voice and Warren is the clear voice against the establishment like Bernie Sanders. So the different groups of Democrats are converging on their support for Harris. The one dissenting voice is Democrat Tulsi Gabbard, who had explicitly declared that Harris is not fit to be president.

Harris’s big challenge as presidential candidate is that of choosing her vice presidential candidate, and opinion about her might hinge on the choice she makes in this case. The burden of decision-making will not be on her shoulders alone. She has the Democratic party leadership and her own campaign aides to help her choose. But she has to take the ultimate call. Trump chose J.D.Vance for his vice-president who represents the beleaguered white poor class. But Vance has a twist in the story, his Indian-origin wife Usha Vance. Harris will have to choose a Democratic party establishment person.