Battlefront stakes change for Russia and Ukraine

The Ukrainian incursion into Russia in the Kursk region is seen as a fresh and intensive offensive after months of inconclusive battles. It has even been described as a Ukrainian invasion because it is the first time that the Ukrainian forces have been inside Russia, though it is only about 10 to 20 km across the border.

This has been seen as a renewed energised battle by a flagging Ukraine even as Russia had been keeping the more than two-year-old war going. The Russians too have acknowledged the Ukrainian incursion into Russia, and the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Army General Valery Gerasimov, had told President Vladimir Putin that his forces would defeat the Ukrainian units and free the border.

Meanwhile, Russian National Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said that the Ukrainian offensive was to showcase Kiev’s military prowess to get more aid from the West. On the other hand, the spin that is being given to the Ukrainian thrust into Kursk is that when peace talks happen between Russia and Ukraine, and it is expected that the talks will become inevitable if Donald Trump wins the November presidential elections because Trump is not keen to support Ukraine’s war effort, then Ukraine would be in a better position to bargain with a strong position on the battlefront.

The Ukrainian interpretation of the Kursk incursion is that the West’s military supplies have increased, and the Ukrainian forces, better equipped, are able to fight much more vigorously. This has indeed been the theme song of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine needs urgent military aid from the West and Ukraine can fight Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian news agency TASS has reported that the Russian Battlegroup North has attacked the ‘foreign legion’ of mercenaries in the Ukrainian army in the Kharkov region, and that the Russian forces had killed hundreds of Ukrainian mercenaries. What is happening in this long-drawn war is that both sides are looking to weak spots across the border where they can strike at each other.

It does not seem to be the case that there is as yet an attempt to win the war across the battlefront. There is a stalemate and both sides recognise this. Russia appears to be willing to drag on the war because there is a feeling in the Russian side that Moscow can sustain the war for a long time without collapsing. The Ukrainians appear to be at a disadvantage because they know that the West will not continue the military and financial aid endlessly. Ukraine has been making attempts to initiate peace talks after the failed one in Switzerland. Ukraine wants to pressurise Russia through world opinion. But it became clear from the aborted peace moves in Switzerland that peace talks cannot be on the terms of one side, and in this instance that of Ukraine.

Neither Ukraine’s Western allies nor Russia’s friends seem to have any idea as to what should be the terms of negotiation. The general demand is that Russia should withdraw its forces from Ukraine. But Russia is willing to withdraw only on the condition that Ukraine is not admitted as a member of NATO. The West would not want to yield on that point. So the deadlock persists. The possible breakthrough is the West not giving an explicit assurance that Ukraine would not be admitted to NATO, and Putin has to accept the tacit assurance of the Western powers, and Russian troops would quietly withdraw and Putin would close the Ukrainian operation.

But these are going to be difficult decisions for both the sides because of the aggressive initial stances they had adopted since the war. It is also no more the case that Trump is a sure winner in the American presidential election, and Kamala Harris will continue Joe Biden’s policy of support for Ukraine.