Drastic weather change in Antarctica alarming

Experts, 1500 of them, met at the 11th Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research conference in the southern Chilean town of Pucon to exchange notes on the rapid changes in the weather of the ‘white continent’ that Antarctica is known as.

This is leading to melting of the ice-sheet, breaking off of large parts of icebergs and dry winds, and all these are seen as signs that Antarctica is reaching the ‘tipping point’ when there will be irreversible changes in the sea-levels, which would be felt in other parts of the world. There is a saying that what happens in Antarctica does not remain in Antarctica. Climatologists, meteorologists, biologists are all pondering over the drastic changes occurring in the southern polar region. Some of the scientists still entertain the hope that if the carbon emissions are curbed then there is a chance of preventing total disaster.

There are some, especially the paleo-climatologists – people who study climate conditions of the past, going back thousands of years – who say that events of increased CO2 had occurred earlier, and the ice cover recovered after a long time. But it would be unthinkable to face the consequences arising from the increase in CO2 levels that will alter the Antarctic landscape permanently.

Says Liz Keller, paleo-climate specialist from Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand: “There’s uncertainty about whether the current observations indicate a temporary dip or a downward plunge (of sea ice).” She says, “You may see the same rise in CO2 over thousands of years, but now it’s happened in 100 years.”

Mike Weber, a paleo-oceanographer from the University of Bonn in Germany, who looked at ice sediment dating back to 21,000 years, says there were similar periods of “accelerated ice melt”. Weber believes that increase in carbon levels had happened at least eight times in the past. It would happen in a few decades and its effects will last centuries before reversal can take place.

The message is that warming due to CO2 had happened before in the earth’s history, but it was much before human beings emerged and created their own habitat. And human beings would not be able to deal with the consequences of climate change caused by rise in CO2 levels because it would disrupt human life cycle as we know it. It also means that drastic changes in climatic patterns are not happening for the first time, but these drastic climate changes threaten human life. Human beings can only survive if there is enough oxygen in the air, and that CO2 levels remain at the low percentage.

 If there is too much of oxygen, then things will catch fire. That is why the presence of nitrogen dilutes oxygen. Nitrogen constitutes 78 per cent of the atmosphere, oxygen 21 per cent, and carbon 0.042 per cent. It is the increase in CO2 in the air, which in turn raises the mean average temperature that poses a threat. 

The weather indicators in Antarctica point to what would happen in the rest of the globe in terms of temperature. The rise in CO2 levels would mean rise in temperature beyond the 1.5 degrees Celsius at a time before the Industrial Revolution nearly 200 years ago. The 1.5 degrees Celsius is seen as the tipping point. Hence the urgency to keep a watch over the ice-cover in Antarctica.

The exercise may seem unconvincing because the argument would be how can a change in temperature of such small proportion be the cause of catastrophe? It is indeed a case of small change triggering a major disaster. There is not much time to argue and to debate over finer points. The danger is real, and survival strategies cannot be delayed any more.