Indian districts at risk from climate extremes

A new study that addresses the pressing issue of climate change and its impact on India delves into the projected increase in heatwave intensity and prevalence, which could affect 8 out 10 people in India by 2036 if current trends continue.

The study by IPE-Global and Esri-India provides data showing that 84% of Indian districts are extreme heatwave hotspots, with 70% also experiencing erratic rainfall, according to an ESRI-India press release. The policy brief identifies specific district-level hotspots in coastal, plain, and hilly regions most affected by heatwaves.

The issue brief titled ‘Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate’ was launched at a national level symposium in August. The study warns that rising global temperatures and increased humidity are leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves, especially in India. It also reveals an extended summer season in India, overlapping with the monsoon, leading to extreme rainfall and heatwave events.

As pointed out by an India Today report, the research, which analysed climate data from 1973 to 2023, found that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased four-fold in recent decades. The last decade alone saw a five-fold surge in climate extremes, highlighting the rapidly changing climate risk landscape across India. The study identified several concerning trends. Eastern, northeastern, and southern zones of India are most prone to extreme flood events. Southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka are seeing a notable increase in drought conditions. Urban centres such as Bengaluru, Pune, Ahmedabad, Patna, and Prayagraj are witnessing maximum ‘swapping trends’ between floods and droughts. Over 60% of districts in states like Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat, and Rajasthan are experiencing multiple extreme climate events.

The India Today report also states that the researchers recommend establishing a Climate Risk Observatory and an Infrastructure Climate Fund to support climate-resilient infrastructure and locally-led climate actions. These initiatives could help decision-makers at various levels navigate the evolving landscape of climate risks more effectively. As world leaders prepare to gather for Climate Week NYC, this study points to the urgent need for comprehensive, localised climate risk assessments and targeted interventions to protect lives, livelihoods, and economies in India and beyond

Another India Today report points out that the 2024 monsoon season has been extremely unpredictable as the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts it could extend into October. The monsoon has extended its stay well beyond September. However, experts claim this year’s extended monsoon is not an anomaly. It has been a slow trend in the making for over a decade. This shift in monsoon patterns has left farmers and policymakers grappling with the consequences of erratic rains, flooding, and damage to crops, highlighting the urgent need for adapting agricultural practices to this new climate reality. The report also says that according to climatologists, the southwest monsoon onset and withdrawal have become slow. This has led to heavier-than-expected rainfall in northern and western parts of the country. Western states like Gujarat and Rajasthan have witnessed a staggering 30% increase in rainfall over the last decade, with heavy downpours becoming more frequent. In these arid and semi-arid regions, this shift from moderate monsoons to bouts of heavy rainfall has caused major disruptions, leading to floods and crop damage.

A Reuters report, quoting the European Union’s climate change monitoring service, recently highlighted that the world is emerging from its warmest Northern Hemisphere summer since records began, the European Union’s climate change monitoring service said as global warming continues to intensify. The boreal summer of June to August this year has become the world’s warmest, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) had said. The exceptional heat increases the likelihood that 2024 will outrank 2023 as the planet’s warmest on record. Human-caused climate change and the El Niño natural weather phenomenon, which warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, both pushed temperatures to record highs earlier in the year. The planet’s changed climate has already fuelled disasters this summer — in Sudan, floods affected more than 300,000 people and brought cholera; a severe ongoing drought hit the Italian islands of Sicily and Sardinia, and Typhoon Gaemi tore through the Philippines, Taiwan and China in July.