Israel's existential battle is with the Palestinians

Israel's campaign against Hizbollah escalated a week ago with the detonation of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies which killed around 40 people and wounded 3,000 and peaked with Israeli strikes in south Beirut which slew two of the movement's commanders and 14 fighters as well as innocent civilians. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant spoke of these carefully planned and calibrated attacks as a "new phase" in its war on Hizbollah.

This was followed by the most intense Israeli bombardment of Lebanon since Hizbollah opened a second front in the Gaza war last October. The objective of this phase is to force Hizbollah to end its cross-border exchanges with the Israeli army and restore quiet to the north of the country so 60,000 displaced Israelis can return to their villages and settlements. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu — who has been under growing pressure to meet their urgent demands before schools resume classes — has added the north to his war objectives which are to crush Hamas in Gaza, subdue Palestinian resistance in the West Bank and bring home the remaining 97 Israelis and visitors taken captive by Hamas on October 7th last year.  While he has refused to give Hamas' captives priority and reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza he hope to boost his standing with the Israeli public by securing the demands of the far more numerous residents of the north.

Above all, Netanyahu is determined to keep the Gaza war going in order to postpone the reckoning over the failure of his government and the Israeli army to identify Hamas' intentions and predict and prevent Hamas' October 7th attack which killed 1,139 Israelis, the largest number in a single incident since the founding of the state 76 years ago. By continuing the Gaza war, Netanyahu also saves himself from appearing at his ongoing trial for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. Conviction could land him in jail for up to 10 years.

Netanyahu has everything to gain and nothing to lose by escalating in Lebanon. He possesses the most advanced and powerful military machine in the region. He has the capability of turning Lebanon into another Gaza wasteland while targeting Hizbollah. He will be criticised by regional and Western powers and at the UN but no one will step in to save Lebanon.   Furthermore, US President Joe Biden has dispatched war planes and a naval carrier group to the Eastern Mediterranean to discourage Hizbollah's ally, Iran, from intervening by firing ballistic missiles and armed drones at Israel. After Israel killed Iranian Islamic Guards Corps officers at Tehran's consulate in Damascus, Iran fired hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel in a well advertised repost with the aim of maintaining deterrence and displaying Iranian prowess.

Hizbollah is constrained. Hizbollah cannot afford to bring down Israel's fire and brimstone on Lebanon. In 2006, Israel waged a deadly and destructive war on Lebanon after Hizbollah fighters killed and seized Israeli troops during a border patrol. During the 34-day conflict, more than 1,200 Lebanese were killed, a million were displaced from the south; 165 Israelis were slain and 400,000-500,000 were displaced from the north.

For Lebanon, there is no comparison between conditions in 2006 and 2024. By 2006, Lebanon had largely recovered from the 15-year civil war (1975-1990), Hizbollah had driven Israeli forces from south Lebanon in 2000, and Lebanon had bounced back from the shock assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. Beirut and the Lebanese mountain resorts were filled with expatriates and tourists. Hizbollah grew into a powerful party and entered parliament while maintaining its armed branch.

In 2019, Lebanon's greatest socio-economic crisis began, billions in foreign currencies fled the country, the local currency lost 90 per cent of its value, and the poverty level tripled. In August 2020, a powerful explosion at Beirut port flattened the area, killed more than 200 and rendered tens of thousands homeless in nearby neighbourhoods. In 2022, President Michel Aoun stepped down at the end of his term and has not been replaced due to deadlock among the political elite. Lebanon's caretaker government under Prime Minister Najib Mikati cannot initiate reforms needed to secure an international rescue package for the economy. Lebanon is in no position to risk another Israeli war. Netanyahu knows this.

Hizbollah also cannot afford a war. The movement, with 20,000 active fighters and 20,000 reservists, is the largest, best financed, and best trained military force in Lebanon. Thousands of its fighters are veterans of the Syrian civil/proxy war (2011-2019).  Hizbollah can, in theory, deploy and fire an estimated 150,000 missiles and drones into Israel but large-scale strikes can be pre-empted by Israeli destruction of launch pads (as happened last week) and most can be shot down by Israel's Iron Dome system. Hizbollah cannot allow its ranks to be decimated, or its defences obliterated by Israel. Finally, Hizbollah is not simply a paramilitary organisation but is more than ever a socio-economic mainstay of needy Lebanese in south Beirut and the country's south by providing them with welfare, educational and health services.

Hizbollah's ally, Iran, does not want to risk tangling with Israel or with its US ally. Instead, with the approval of Iran's ultimate authority, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's new president reformist Masoud Pezeshkian seeks to revive the defunct agreement to limit Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions which have crippled its economy. Pezeshkian hopes to cultivate relations with the region and West and end Iran's ostracism.

Israel's “new phase” in Lebanon could compel Hizbollah to gradually taper off its cross-border strikes in northern Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza. Hizbollah's attacks have done little or nothing to halt Israel's campaign to turn Gaza into a wasteland or ease its repression of Palestinians in the West Bank. Israel's existential battle is with the Palestinians who challenge both its legitimacy and security. Hizbollah is, after all, a complication which Israel can remove by hitting Lebanon. Hizbollah's duty to Lebanon and itself is to live to fight another day and remain a deterrent to Israel's ambitions in Lebanon.