AI helps flood warnings, but risks remain

When floods ripped through parts of Europe in September, the scale of the destruction took people by surprise. The intense rains should not have, because those had been predicted by sophisticated forecasting systems enhanced with artificial intelligence.

But forewarned did not mean forearmed. Though the rains were accurately predicted, the effects in the deluged areas were not – a fact that highlights the difficulties of dealing with ever more common extreme weather.

AI has supercharged weather forecasting, using a range of statistical tools to analyse years of historical data and predict patterns, and at a lower cost than traditional numerical weather predictions.

AI technology can create more specific predictions ahead of events such as urban flooding or in complex terrain such as mountainous areas.

But there are still gaps in knowledge, in how the information is used and in investment to strengthen data gathering models, experts say.

One issue is that the effectiveness of an AI model is only as good as the information it is fed. If there is little input data, or extreme events happen more frequently at different times of the year or in different regions, weather disasters become more challenging to predict, according to a Reuters report.

Since January, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), an independent organisation that provides predictions four times per day to European countries, has been using the Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS).

This data-driven forecasting model makes multiple predictions rapidly and delivers long-term forecasts of weather events like cyclones and heatwaves. The ECMWF readings ahead of the September floods were accurate, experts say.

But even with accurate forecasts, scientists say communication is key, especially in an era when climate change means extreme weather is becoming more frequent.

“I think what happened with (the recent floods) ... is that it’s so rare – a one in 150- to 200-year event – that even if the weather models capture it, there’s a reasonable degree of uncertainty,” said Shruti Nath, a postdoctoral research assistant in predicting weather and climate at Oxford University.

“You have to produce the warning in a way that is communicative, in the degree of severity it could possibly have on people, then people could see the cost of inaction versus the cost of action is actually much greater. So then they would actually put (in) more resources,” she said.

Europe faces urgent climate risks that are outpacing policies and adaptation actions, a report from the European Environment Agency has warned, the Reuters report adds.

Extreme heat, drought, wildfires and flooding will worsen in Europe even under optimistic global warming scenarios and affect living conditions throughout the continent, the EEA says.

After the floods, the European commissioner for crisis management, Janez Lenarčič, said the disaster was not an anomaly. “These extreme weather events that used to be once in a lifetime are now an almost annual occurrence. The global reality of climate breakdown has moved into the everyday lives of Europeans,” he said. Some tech entrepreneurs say Europe is not ready.

Jonas Torland, co-founder of Norway-based 7Analytics, which develops models for predicting floods and landslides, said governments and businesses in the United States had risk managers who were more accustomed to assessing environmental hazards, while in Europe, authorities lacked readiness. Data processing is also a challenge because these complex AI models need to run updates every hour as forecasts change, the Reuters report adds. That requires both a lot of computing power, and a lot of time – especially at more minute scales.

Some big technology companies, like Microsoft and Google, are exploring the use of nuclear power to run their huge data storage centres.

Other scientists stress that beyond refining their forecasting abilities, authorities need to invest in physical solutions, like developing areas where floodwater can safely be stored, and early warning systems.