Democratic House hopes hinge on heartland

Daniela Altimari, Tribune News Service

Dozens of Democrats crammed into a side room at a restaurant here last week and, over burgers, fries and cauliflower cakes, laid out their plan to retake the deep-purple 3rd District. At this point in the election cycle, it’s all about marshaling resources and getting out the vote, Kira Barker, executive director of Polk County Democrats, told the crowd. In the weeks leading up to the start of early voting on Oct. 16, the party delivered more than 95,000 door tags and sent more than 100,000 text messages urging support for Lanon Baccam, who is running against Republican freshman Rep. Zach Nunn. “These areas have not received resources since Obama,” Barker said. “In ’22 … there was no GOTV, no coordinated (efforts), and (Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne) lost by 2,000 votes.” Iowa, where Republicans hold the governor’s office, majorities in both chambers of the legislature and all four congressional seats, has emerged as an unlikely House battleground. Party committees and super PACs are pouring resources into the 3rd District and the neighboring 1st District to the east, where Democrat Christina Bohannan seeks to unseat Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Of the two districts, analysts say Miller-Meeks appears more vulnerable. Former President Donald Trump would have narrowly won both districts in 2020 had the current boundaries been in place. Last month, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales shifted the races from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.

Iowa’s importance is evident in the string of high-profile congressional leaders who have trekked to the state. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries traveled to Des Moines on Monday for a private fundraiser for Bohannan and Baccam, The Des Moines Register reported. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., campaigned with Baccam on Friday. Speaker Mike Johnson held rallies in both the 1st and the 3rd districts as well. “We’ve been here multiple times … because this race is so important,” Johnson said at a Friday rally in West Des Moines with Nunn. “It’s more than just Iowa’s 3rd District, it’s more than just the state of Iowa. This is about the entire country, and if Zach Nunn wins again — and he will — he’s going to help us save America.” Just as swing seats in the blue states of New York and California will have an outsize influence on the House map even though they aren’t presidential battlegrounds, Democrats have their sights set on flipping two of Iowa’s House districts in a state that Trump is overwhelmingly favored to win.

“I would be very shocked if we wake up the day after the election and Trump does not win Iowa, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see some of these congressional districts flip,” said Kelly B. Shaw, a professor of political science at Iowa State University in Ames. The 3rd District, a wide swath of south-central Iowa, reaching from Des Moines to the Missouri border, has shifted politically in recent years. Since Charles E. Grassley left the seat to run for Senate in 1980, the district has toggled between the two parties six times. Baccam is hoping to flip it once again. The son of refugees from Laos who served in Afghanistan as a member of the Iowa National Guard, he has criticized the GOP’s anti-immigrant rhetoric, saying it doesn’t square with Iowa’s tradition of welcoming those from other countries.

“We have had this long history of supporting people from all over the world,” Baccam said in an interview. “Iowa doesn’t have to be this place that is divided. … We have a deeper appreciation for what immigration means.” Baccam has focused his campaign on lowering the cost of consumer goods and prescription drugs, supporting public education and protecting Social Security. Nunn, meanwhile, has called for increased border security and halting “tax and spend policies” that drive up costs.

Both candidates have sought to portray themselves as moderates who can work across the aisle. Baccam talks about the friendships he forged while serving in the military. “When guys from opposite ends of the political spectrum can come together to build a brotherhood to defend this country at a time of war, we can come back together as a country and do that, starting right here in our communities. And I will focus on that when I get to Congress,” he said.

Nunn struck a similar chord. “I’m proud to be [among] the top 10 most bipartisan members of Congress, working with colleagues on both sides of the aisle to deliver for Iowans,” Nunn said at the rally in West Des Moines. “I’m even more proud that I’ve got 750,000 bosses back home who are Republicans, who are independents, who are Democrats.”

Abortion access is a flash point in both races. Iowa’s abortion ban took effect in July and is among the nation’s strictest: It prohibits the procedure after six weeks of pregnancy, before many women know they are pregnant. Baccam said Nunn, a former state lawmaker, is trying to walk back his support for limits on abortion. “He’s constantly finding ways to … maneuver himself into any position that benefits him politically,” Baccam said. “He’s trying to split the hair on this, and he can’t.”

One particularly withering ad, funded by the House Majority PAC, which supports Democrats, features a clip from a 2022 Republican primary debate. Candidates were asked to raise their hands if they support a full abortion ban with no exceptions, and Nunn is shown raising his hand. Nunn has called the ad misleading, saying he never backed barring abortion in cases of rape, incest or when the mother’s life is at risk.

“Let me be crystal clear where I stand and have stood: I’m pro-life,” Nunn told Iowa Capital Dispatch earlier this month. “I voted for exceptions for rape, incest and certainly for the health of the mother. I believe strongly that we should not have a federal abortion ban and take that away from Iowans.” In the 1st District, Democrats have attacked Miller-Meeks for her support in 2021 of legislation that would guarantee a right to life from the moment of fertilization without any exceptions. She has not co-sponsored the 2023 version of the bill. “Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn paved the way for Iowa to have one of the strictest abortion bans in the country,” said Mallory Payne, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Views from early voters: Shannon Rae Brown said abortion access is one of her top concerns. “If you don’t think it’s right to have an abortion, don’t have one,” the 82-year-old Polk County resident said, exiting the voting booth after casting her ballot. “The doctors and the person facing this should be the ones making the decision, not the government.” Brown backed Baccam and the rest of the Democratic ticket. “This is the most important election we’ve had in years,” she said. “They’re all important, but this one is particularly important because it’s about democracy.” Another Iowa early voter, Kathy Damron of Pleasant Hill, said she voted for Republicans up and down the ballot. “I voted for Zach Nunn last time and I just voted for him again,” the 77-year-old retiree said. “I’m going for the Republicans because they’re more commonsense.” Bill Damron of Des Moines, who is separated from Kathy but also voted early alongside her, said the abortion issue “might be a problem” for Nunn. “But I think he’s a better candidate than the other guy.”