Political uncertainty hovers over Japan

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its long-time ally, Komeito, failed to muster a majority in the legislative elections held on Sunday. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who became the LDP leader in the place of Fumio Kishida on October 1, called for snap elections to gain legitimacy on his own.

Ishiba as well as everyone around, the voters, the political pundits, were aware that the people were angry with the LDP for both its corruption as well as the hard economic conditions of the country. Ishiba promised to be a different leader and even reform his party. He was a rebel in his own way. But the people refused to give the benefit of the doubt to the new leader. The LDP won 191 and the Komeito 24, together gathering 215 seats, falling short of the majority in the Lower House, called the Diet, of 456.

Though the people were disillusioned with the LDP and its partner Komeito, they do not seem to have trusted the opposition parties. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) had increased its parliamentary strength from 96 to 148. The other smaller parties like the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) won 28 and 38 seats. But the opposition parties, even if they were to join hands, are nowhere near a parliamentary majority. The voters have expressed their anger and dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition but they have not found a party to replace the LDP and Komeito.

It is indeed a political stalemate. The LDP-Komeito coalition will have to look around for partners to be able to form a majority government, or they will have to function as a minority government. The DPP leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, and JIP leader Nobuyuki Baba have ruled out joining the government but they have expressed their willingness to support the government on certain issues.

The LDP remains the longest ruling party despite the electoral setback. It had indeed lost power in 1993 and in 2009 but it managed to come back to power. The LDP presents the conservative elite of Japan, who form a closed circle, and the people are forced to vote for them because credible alternatives have not emerged. The LDP has to reform itself to be able to stay in power. And that is what Ishiba wants to do, reform the LDP.

The party was accused of providing money through the party to candidates who were not endorsed, and this was exposed by a newspaper affiliated to the Japanese Communist Party, and the rest of the Japanese media picked up the story. Ishiba said after the election, “I will enact fundamental reform regarding the issue of money and politics.”

There is speculation whether Ishiba would remain prime minister after the party’s electoral defeat. But Ishiba asserted that he would not resign. He said he would continue as prime minister because Japan’s economy and security were in a crisis, and a political vacuum cannot be allowed to exist.

The Japanese people as well as the LDP are in an unenviable position. The people do not want the LDP and if they had their way they would throw the party out of power. But they do not have an alternative. The LDP wants to remain in power and it believes that it is the party that can govern Japan.

But it is not able to get the necessary majority to govern the country. Ishiba and the LDP have to walk a tightrope of ruling the country without a majority. The political uncertainty that follows from a ruling party without a majority is quite risky. It should not come as a surprise that there would be another election half-way through the new government’s term.