UK economy barely grew in November after Reeves budget

Britain’s economic output returned to growth in November but expanded by less than expected in the first month after finance minister Rachel Reeves announced big tax increases for businesses.

Gross domestic product rose by 0.1% from October, according to official data, marking the first month-on-month increase since August after falls in September and October. However, economists polled by Reuters had mostly forecast a 0.2% rise.

Reeves, whose Oct. 30 budget included big increases in social security contributions paid by employers, said after the data release that she was “determined to go further and faster to kick-start economic growth.” She will meet regulators on Thursday to discuss what they can do to help the Labour government meet its promise to voters to speed up the economy.

Ben Jones, lead economist at the Confederation of British Industry, said a mood of caution had settled over UK businesses since the budget.

“Many firms are entering 2025 with a focus on reducing operational expenditure, which is likely to weigh on pay, hiring and investment in the months ahead,” Jones said.

Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Thursday’s data showed the gloomy mood continued for the UK economy due to the budget tax hikes and global uncertainty after Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory.

The Bank of England looked certain to cut rates in February, Wood said, “but we think the outlook remains brighter than the late 2024 data suggest, and talk of recessionary risk is wide of the mark.” Sterling fell, dropping by about a fifth of a cent against the US dollar before recovering some of that loss.

The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s services sector grew a little in November with wholesaling, pubs and restaurants and IT companies all doing well but manufacturers and oil and gas firms had a weaker month.

Britain’s economy, which was slow to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, showed zero growth in the third quarter when uncertainty about the upcoming budget hit businesses. The BoE expects economic growth to have flat-lined in the last three months of 2024.

However, an increase in government spending is expected to cause growth to speed up in 2025.

Concerns about weak growth contributed to a recent surge in British government borrowing costs before they dropped sharply on Wednesday after a surprise fall in inflation at home and US price growth data.

Lindsay James, an investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said the full impact of the budget was yet to come, with the tax rises due to start in April.

“Businesses will soon feel the effects of increased national insurance contributions,” James said. “In addition, Trump’s inauguration is nearing, and the true effects of his policies will start to be felt later in the year.” The Labour government says it is targeting the fastest per capita growth in gross domestic product among the Group of Seven advanced economies.

Compared with a year earlier, economic output was 1.0% higher in November, the ONS said, weaker than the 1.3% expansion forecast by economists.

Taylor Wimpey said on Thursday it was well placed to build more homes in 2025 than last year, but flagged increased build cost pressure at a time the British housing sector navigates affordability and broader economic concerns.

Shares in the FTSE 100 UK homebuilder were down 2.3% to 111.85 pence in early trade.

British homebuilders, which grappled with lacklustre demand in 2024, now face potential pressure from slower-than-expected reduction in interest rate cuts.

Although tax hikes, rising labour costs, fears of reduced government spending and recent volatility in bond markets have soured the economic outlook, the surprise drop in UK December inflation has soothed some nerves.

“Market conditions are uncertain, and we continue to monitor the impact of mortgage costs on affordability,” CEO Jennie Daly said in a statement.

The company said that while price negotiations for 2025 are ongoing, it expects increased build-cost pressure as suppliers assess the impact of the UK budget, including increased labour costs kicking in from April.

Analysts at BOFA Global Research said in a note that Taylor Wimpey’s quality land bank and healthy balance sheet will benefit the group when market demand returns.

The High Wycombe, UK-based company said its year-end order book excluding joint ventures stood at about 2 billion pounds, up from 1.77 billion a year earlier.

Excluding joint ventures, Taylor Wimpey built 9,972 homes in Britain in 2024, down about 4%, and reiterated that it expected its annual operating profit to be in line with the market view.

Agencies