Coronavirus apprehensions have doubly isolated Iran

Michael Jansen, Political Correspondent

Hardline conservatives won by a landslide in Iran’s February 21st parliamentary election but it was a hollow victory. Iranians had little enthusiasm for voting or for candidates. Countrywide only 42 per cent of registered voters turned out, the lowest figure since the 1979 revolution. In Tehran that figure was 25 per cent.

The hardliners, who call themselves “principalists,” defeated reformists, who formed the majority in the 290-member majlis and supported President Hassan Rouhani. The principalists success was preordained since more than half the 14,000 persons, a majority them reformists and moderates, who applied to run were banned by the Guardian Council, the body vetting candidates.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his clerical entourage, conservatives and the Republican Guard are determined to strengthen their grip on the levers of power to counter potential popular protests as recession deepens ahead of next year’s presidential election.

There are several serious reasons why most Iranians did not vote. Elected to a first term in 2013, Rouhani raised popular hopes when he secured the adoption of a health care plan to provide for low income Iranians. He could not, however, meet Iranians’ high expectations in other fields although he promised major reforms during his election campaign.  

Nevertheless, the reformists’ popularity soared when Tehran concluded an agreement with six world powers for the reduction by 90 per cent of its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. After implementation of the nuclear deal in early 2016, Iran’s economy began to recuperate from decades of sanctions. Iranians were looking forward to economic growth, jobs, imported essential and consumer goods, and an end to international isolation.

Unfortunately, however, Iranian expectations were dampened by the bad behaviour of the US. Even under the Obama administration, which negotiated the nuclear deal, the US maintained not only its own sanctions but also used its control of financial institutions and transactions to block essential investment, particularly in the country’s depreciated fossil fuel infrastructure.   

Recovery was sharply reversed in mid-2018 when the Trump administration re-imposed and ramped up sanctions in accordance with its “maximum pressure” campaign. Oil, natural gas and other exports were cut by half, essential imports were severely reduced, and Iran lost access to financial markets. The value of the Iranian currency fell, prompting Iranians to take to the streets to protest the high cost of living, lack of jobs, and, ultimately, the clerical regime itself.

Iranians no longer believe the cleric-dominated regime — whether by conservatives or reformists - can deliver a decent standard of living for all Iranians. They blame both camps for mismanagement of the economy, public services, and foreign affairs as well as rampant corruption.   

The government has responded by cracking down hard on domestic protests and, to punish US allies, by mounting carefully calibrated strikes on Gulf shipping and Saudi oil facilities. Pro-Iranian Iraqi militias have lobbed rockets into Iraqi bases hosting US troops. The US escalated tensions when it assassinated Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad in January. This elicited mass patriotic demonstrations across Iran but anti-government protests resumed after the military belatedly admitted the subsequent accidental shooting down of a Ukrainian airliner, killing the crew and 176 passengers, many of them Iranians.

Iran’s post-election failure to tackle quickly and effectively the coronavirus epidemic, initially reported, on February 19th, is certain to further negatively impact public confidence in the regime. The infection arrived in the country “unseen and undetected,” a World Health Organsation official said.  The virus settled in and radiated from the holy city of Qom because it was not sealed off as soon as the virus appeared there. Consequently, no one knows how many people have been infected. This has created a scandal of major proportions.  

Iran has refused to follow the example of China, the source of the virus, by quarantining cities and other locations where the virus had taken hold. Consequently, pilgrims continue to flow into Qom and from Qom and spreading the virus wherever they have gone. High-ranking Iranian officials have caught and even died from the virus. Qom has become the centre of infection for this region and Canada, as China has for Asia and Italy for Europe and, now, Africa.

Iran has not come clean about the extent of the infection. The authorities have reported 34 deaths while some experts estimate the real figure could be as high as two hundred. Therefore, the number of infections could be between 10,000-20,000.  Most of the fatalities have been in Qom and Tehran.    

According to Robin Wright in the February 28th issue of The New Yorker, the authorities may have been loath to reveal the emergence of the virus which appeared between celebrations of the 41st anniversary of the Iranian revolution on February 11th and the election ten days later. The regime did not, in particular, want to frighten voters from going to the polls although many of the regime loyalists who did wore medical masks.  

The Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign has denied Iran some of the tools needed to counter the virus, notably kits to detect it, medications, masks, and cleansing products.  Tehran has dismissed Washington’s offers of help to confront the crisis.  

Like China and Italy, Iran belatedly took steps to prevent the spread of the contagion, but this should have been tackled as soon as the virus appeared. As with the shooting down of the Ukrainian airliner, Iran’s rulers are not going to escape blame over virus deaths and infections and the devastating impacts on the economies of Iran and neighbouring countries.  

Tehran cancelled Friday’s communal prayers for the first time ever since the establishment of the Islamic republic in 1979 as the virus spread to 24 or Iran’s 31 provinces.  Universities remain shut while the temporary closure of schools could be extended.  Iran’s neighbours have closed their borders and cancelled flights to the country. Isolated by US sanctions, Iran is now doubly isolated due to the virus.