ASEAN’s two issues: Myanmar, US-China rivalry

The 43rd ASEAN (Association of South-East Nations) summit opened in Jakarta, the Indonesian capital, on Tuesday. The main internal issue that concerned ASEAN members was that of troubled Myanmar. Because of the situation of internal violence in the country, Myanmar has passed its opportunity of heading the ASEAN which was its turn in 2025.

Now, the Philippines will head the ASEAN next, a rotating post which follows the alphabetical order. The ASEAN has reaffirmed its five-point consensus (FPC) adopted by the group earlier which urged de-escalation of violence by all parties concerned in Myanmar, including the army. And that they should engage in dialogue. The ASEAN is also to continue with its special envoy meant to deal with Myanmar. But now it will be a troika of the past, present and future special envoy, who will represent the chair of ASEAN to maintain continuity in policy. The FPC formula has been criticised by many as a failed strategy but ASEAN had decided to continue with it. There have been differences in ASEAN about Myanmar, with Indonesia favouring that all stakeholders including the army should sit down to talk while Thailand has tried to deal with the military government exclusively.

On the issue of ASEAN’s relationship with China, which has come into focus because of the new map issued by the Chinese government showing large parts of South China Sea as belonging to it, which has raised serious concerns and objections from Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, Indonesian President Joko Widodo warned ASEAN getting dragged into great power rivalry. He said in his inaugural speech, “ASEAN has agreed to not be a proxy to any powers. Don’t turn our ship into an arena for rivalry that is destructive.”

Many of the ASEAN members like Indonesia do not want to join either the pro-American or the pro-China bloc even as the US-China rivalry gets bitter by the day on a range of issues including Taiwan, China’s economic policies and China’s aid to Russia. The US has been trying to deny top-end chip technology to China but Beijing is making its own breakthrough. This has many US businesses worried because they feel that they are losing huge business opportunities because China is a big semiconductor market.

The ASEAN has been a market-friendly and generally West-friendly bloc and the US has been hugely supportive of the group. But many members of the group, excepting Vietnam, have also been sensitive to the huge and strategic neighbour that China is, especially on the economic front. So many members of ASEAN want friendly relations with both the US and China.

But for some countries like Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam China’s aggressive assertion in South China Sea is creating problems because it affects their own territorial stakes in South China Sea. But China is not in a mood for negotiations. This could push these countries into a military alliance with the West.

The ASEAN summit is followed by an East Asia Summit which includes Russia, China, the US, India and Japan. US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are not attending the summit. The US is being represented by Vice President Kamala Harris and China by Prime Minister Li Qiang.

This has led to speculation about the meaning of the absence of the top leaders of US and China. And the ASEAN dilemma with the two world powers turns a little more acute. But ASEAN is sure to ride out the rivalry between the two because the group needs to deal with both the countries. Though China can invest and it is in turn a big market, that will not satisfy ASEAN, which has developed on the Western model of economy and also the political structure. Despite many flaws, many of the ASEAN members are democracies.