Rishi Sunak

Adam Forrest, The Independent

Rishi Sunak is facing an uphill battle to make the general election a presidential-style contest, as a shock new poll reveals he is voters’ preferred PM in only a handful of constituencies across Britain. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is the most popular leader in 390 seats in England, Wales and Scotland — while Sunak is voters’ first choice in just four seats. Starmer is even beating Sunak in the prime minister’s own North Yorkshire constituency of Richmond, in a series of grim survey findings for the Conservatives. It comes as Tory chairman Richard Holden revealed there was still a “one-third” chance Sunak could hold an earlier-than-expected general election in May 2024.

And Sunak has been branded “weak and desperate” as Boris Johnson’s former adviser Dominic Cummings claimed that he and Sunak held top-secret meetings about returning as a No 10 strategist ahead of the election. As election fever mounts, a major new seat-by-seat analysis by Focaldata for the Best for Britain campaign group found that Starmer is beating Sunak in hundreds of constituencies on the question of who makes the best PM. Nationally, the Labour leader is ahead of his Tory rival by 32 per cent to 22 per cent. Only Braintree, Castle Point, Clacton and North Bedfordshire put Sunak ahead of Starmer and undecideds.

The only silver lining for the prime minister comes from the large proportion of undecided voters still up for grabs. The number of “don’t knows” on the question of preferred PM were ahead in 238 seats. The poll also shows that 61 per cent of voters want an early general election by at least May, with only 17 per cent hoping the PM waits until autumn to call the vote. Holden, the Tory chairman, told the Mail on Sunday: “The chance of a May election is about a third. It is more likely to be at the back end of the year. My job is to be ready whenever it happens.” The 10,000-person MRP poll by Focaldata also revealed a high level of interest in tactical voting, and widespread dismay with Brexit. Some 52 per cent, potentially representing 16 million voters, said they would consider voting tactically.

Some 9 in 10 of self-identified tactical voters said Brexit has increased the cost of the weekly shop. And a majority (55 per cent) of these undecided tactical voters want Labour to seek a closer relationship with the EU. The MRP poll also found that Labour lead the Tories nationally by 35 per cent to 19 per cent. The Electoral Calculus analysis of these results point to Labour winning 415 seats — a huge majority of 180 seats for Sir Keir. The Tories would lose around 200 seats and be left with just 151 MPs. Naomi Smith, chief executive of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, said: “The message in our polling from voters is clear — they want an election, they think Brexit has hurt them in their pockets, and they’re prepared to vote tactically for change.”



She added: “Labour may be on course for a victory, but under our broken electoral system nothing can be taken for granted. With the possibility of Farage’s party offering a life raft to his vulnerable friends on the Conservative right, tactical voting will be more important than ever.” The Brexit campaign financier Arron Banks has said he would seek to raise £10m from defecting Tory donors for Reform UK if Nigel Farage makes comeback to lead the party.

“One of the things about Nigel ... is he can cut through to the red-wall seats in a way that Richard Tice doesn’t,” the EU. Leave co-founder told the Sunday Times. “My view is we could raise £10m to kick Reform into the next league — that’s obviously a Nigel-dependent thing.”

Banks added: “A lot of Tory donors love (Farage) … I think their view is that if Rishi isn’t replaced post haste, they could possibly get behind Reform. You are pushing at a half-open door. There are Tory donors who are absolutely furious.” Meanwhile, the PM is said to have asked Johnson’s ex-chief aide for advice as he pushed for a “secret deal” with Cummings to help the Tories win when Britain goes to the polls. Cummings told the Sunday Times that he urged Sunak to abandon his cautious economic approach, hold an emergency budget, settle the NHS strikes and double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.

He also reportedly advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) as part of the Rwanda deportation plan. No 10 has not denied Cummings’ account of a secret meeting, but said no job offer was made. A Downing Street source said: “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered.” Sunak said the public should look forward with “pride and optimism” to 2024 as he insisted his economic plan was already working in his new year message.

Sir Keir challenged voters in his end-of-year message — saying the future of Britain “rests in their hands” at the upcoming general election.