Turn-out could decide the outcome in today’s Iranian presidential election called a year early following the death last month of incumbent Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. The country’s 60 million registered voters are set to choose among six candidates, five conservatives and one reformist. They were approved to compete out of a broad field of 80 hopefuls by 12 clerics of the unelected Guardian Council. If no candidate receives 51 per cent of the vote, a second round will be held next month.

According to the poll of polls, ultra conservative parliament speaker Saeed Jalili is leading the pack with 22.5 per cent of votes. Said to be the favourite of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, he served as head of the country’s national security agency and played a major role in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme. Second, with 19.5 per cent, is parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former military commander who was mayor of Tehran and has repeatedly run for the presidency. Reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian – who is supported by Azeri and Kurdish minorities, comes third with 19.4 per cent. This is why turn-out could decide the contest.

The three no-hopers with less than 3 per cent are current Vice President Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi; the only cleric, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, who served as minister of justice and interior; and Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a former member of parliament.

While 0.7 per cent of respondents said they would cast blank ballots, 28 per cent of those who intend to vote remains undecided on which candidate to choose. A boycott has been proclaimed by supporters of the 2022 “Woman, Freedom, Life” movement which mounted nation-wide protests against the government after a young Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini died in morality police custody for failing to wear her hijab as mandated by law.

Many Iranians contend it does not matter for whom they vote in parliamentary and presidential elections because nothing changes: appointed clerics rule and Khamenei is the ultimate decision maker. Turn-out for the assembly election in March was 41 per cent and for the 2021 presidential election 48 per cent – 44 per cent if blank and spoiled ballots are deducted. These numbers contrast sharply with participation ranging from 85 per cent to 59 per cent in earlier elections.

A Parliamentary Research Centre poll reported that turnout could be 53 per cent while the Iranian Students Polling Agency said 28.8 per cent of students “will under no circumstances vote.”

Mohsen Hashemi Rafsanjani – son of the late president Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani – was quoted in reformist daily Shargh as saying that If voter turnout is below 40 per cent Jalili could win, if its 50 per cent Qalibaf could succeed in the first round, but if turnout reaches 60 per cent Pezeshkian “has a better chance.” During debates he outbid his two main rivals by promising to confront sanctions, return to the nuclear programme and ease up on hijabs, which have alienated the young.

Charismatic and authoritative Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Iranian Islamic Republic, argued that public interest in politics was maintained by swings between conservatives and reformists as they represent the entire society. Having served as Iran’s third president, his successor, Khamenei, 85 – who is neither as charismatic nor as authoritative as Khomeini – seems determined to keep the conservatives in power until his successor is chosen. This could be costly to the cleric-led system’s legitimacy.

The engineered election of Raisi three years ago was seen as the route to his assumption of the position of supreme leader. His death has left Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, as the leading contender. However, at 54, Mojtaba is regarded as too young. He also does not possess the depth of theological learning expected. Since none of the top presidential candidates in this election are clerics, they cannot succeed Khamenei.

The supreme leader’s policy could be risky as Iran faces major domestic, regional, and international challenges. On the home front, punitive US and Western sanctions cripple the economy, inflation is impoverishing the populace and corruption undermines the political system. Iran’s ruling elite is highly sensitive to dissent. Over the past 45 years, the clerics have faced and crushed more than half a dozen major popular protests and uprisings dedicated to overthrow the system of governance.

On the regional front, Tehran does not want to be caught up in Israel’s war on Gaza. Tehran and its allies claimed Hamas did not warn them of its intention to attack Israel on October 7th in order to kill and kidnap Israelis. Neverthe-less, Iran’s allies Lebanon’s Hizbollah and Yemen’s Houthis have become embroiled, causing escalation and expansion. With the aim of deterring an Israeli attack on Iran, it fired hundreds of cruise and ballistic missiles and drones at Israel in mid-April after issuing a warning to Israel and its protectors so the weapons could be shot down. If Iran is pulled into the conflict, there would be no warning when missiles would be launched again. Many could strike home.

Iran does not want war to disrupt its efforts to cultivate good relations with its alienated neighbours.This gained momentum when China mediated reconciliation between Tehran and Riyadh, ruptured in 2016. Iran has followed up by asking Russia to pursue a similar deal with Bahrain which also cut ties in 2016.

On the global front, Iranian hardliners are said to be calling for manufacturing nuclear weapons although the government has rejected this possibility for more than two decades. Both Khomeini and Khamenei have deemed such weapons “un-Islamic.” Having signed the 2015 agreement for limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, Iran was stunned by US President Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the deal.

In 2019, Iran began to breach its commitments by amassing a large supply of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, a short step away from bomb-making 90 per cent purification. A second Trump administration could prompt Tehran to opt for weaponisation as a deterrent against Israeli/US attack. The likelihood of Trump’s return to the White House could speed up this process.

Photo: TNS