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After struggling under severe heatwaves, many parts of India are now grappling with severe flooding according to reports by The Weather Channel, India (WCI).

Earlier in June, as per the WCI, despite a timely start to the monsoon, India faced an 11% deficit in June rainfall compared to normal levels, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This shortfall predominantly affected central, north-western, and north-eastern regions, experiencing 14%, 33%, and 13% below-average rainfall, respectively. In contrast, the southern region enjoyed a surplus of 14% above average rainfall, providing a balanced national precipitation landscape.

However, the IMD has predicted that after below-normal rains in June, July rainfall to exceed 106% of long-term average. Historically, deficient June rainfall often precedes a compensatory July with normal to above-normal precipitation levels. IMD records indicate that in 20 out of 25 years following below-normal June rainfall, July witnessed favourable rainfall patterns.

For instance, as the WCI reports, heavy rains have been lashing Mumbai and other parts of Maharashtra. The intense downpours are attributed to a cyclonic circulation and the monsoon trough over Maharashtra, signifying a monsoon intensification for the state. Heavy to very heavy rainfall with thunderstorms is likely over Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Maharashtra, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Goa.

After a series of dramatic downpours on the West coast of India, the southwest monsoon’s intensity has shifted eastward. A new depression brewing in the Bay of Bengal is set to bring a substantial amount of rainfall to several regions as well.

The WCI reports that ever since the onset of the monsoon, Northeast India has been grappling with severe flooding, affecting millions across several states. The relentless rains have led to overflowing rivers, submerged agricultural lands, and displaced communities. Adding to the woes, a cyclonic circulation over north Bangladesh and Assam, along with a trough extending from northeast Madhya Pradesh to Assam, influenced widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning across Northeast India.

Most rivers, including the Brahmaputra, are flowing above the danger mark. The rising water levels have threatened wildlife in Kaziranga National Park and Tiger Reserve, with over 26% of its 233 forest camps underwater. The flooding has forced wildlife to migrate, leading to animals crossing national highways in search of higher ground. More than 130 wild animals, including six rare rhinoceroses, have tragically perished in the ongoing flooding at Kaziranga National Park in Assam, north-eastern India. Officials report this event as one of the worst in recent years for the renowned wildlife sanctuary, known globally for its endangered one-horned rhino population.

The WCI report states that the park, which faced a similarly devastating flood in 2017 that claimed over 350 animal lives due to floods and vehicle collisions during migration, is once again grappling with severe inundation. Among the casualties are 117 hog deer, two sambar deer, a rhesus macaque, and an otter, many of whom drowned as floodwaters swept through the park. Efforts to mitigate the disaster have shown some success, with officials rescuing 97 animals from the floodwaters. Currently, 25 animals are receiving medical treatment, while 52 others have been successfully released back into safe habitats after treatment. The flooding, exacerbated by heavy monsoon rains, has also affected local communities, with approximately 18 million people currently impacted by the deluge. The situation remains precarious due to an active monsoon trough, with meteorological warnings forecasting continued heavy rainfall across the region.

The WCI also reports that the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced the conclusion of the El Nino phase, which has significantly influenced global weather patterns over the past year. This transition sets the stage for a potential shift to La Niña in the coming months, with implications for weather conditions worldwide, including the Indian monsoon. The cycle between El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases recurs every two to seven years, impacting global weather events such as wildfires, tropical cyclones, floods, and prolonged droughts. The NOAA’s forecast of a 65% chance of La Niña from July to September suggests favourable conditions for robust monsoon rainfall in the latter part of the season for India. This projection aligns with the IMD prediction of above-normal monsoon rainfall.