Displaced Palestinians gather in the yard of a school hit by an Israeli strike in Gaza City. AFP

The threat of an Israeli war on Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen could recede if serious movement towards a Gaza ceasefire is achieved this week when Israeli and Hamas negotiators resume talks on a Gaza ceasefire. The pretext for this war would be Iranian retaliation for Israel’s July 31st assassination of Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. For more than a decade Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has called for pre-emptive war on Iran, which he accuses of planning to build nuclear weapons.

The cancellation of a major Iranian strike on Israel in exchange for a Gaza ceasefire became an option last week during the emergency meeting of the 57-member Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Jeddah. Convened at the request of Iran and Palestine, the foreign ministers condemned Israel's killing of Haniyeh but did not back Iranian retaliation. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar called for sticking to the diplomatic route. “We must not fulfil Netanyahu’s plan for a wider war.” According to Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, the trade-off of retaliation for ceasefire was proposed. Subsequently, there have been indications that Iran is "recalibrating" its response to Israel's attack on Tehran.

This may have encouraged Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and US President Joe Biden to put pressure on both sides "to close remaining gaps” in the deal and “commence implementation... without further delay.” While Egypt and Qatar have spent months mediating so far unsuccessful negotiations, Biden's belated input could convince Netanyahu to deliver. Since Netanyahu gives priority to eliminating Hamas militarily and administratively, he does not want a ceasefire even though continuation of the Gaza war threatens the lives of the 70-odd live hostages held by Hamas. Netanyahu's negotiators have complained that he has systematically scuppered nearly finalized deals by introducing last minute conditions certain to be rejected by Hamas. Since Netanyahu’s manoeuvres have been made public to Israelis, he has faced demands from captives' families and the general populace to ceasefire and bring the captives home.

He has been motivated by threats to bring down his coalition by extremist ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir. If the government falls, Netanyahu will have to defend himself in court from charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust. His testimony in his ongoing trial has been postponed until next year due the war.

For a change, the Biden administration has taken a tough verbal line with Netanyahu by saying it will not allow “extremists” to derail Gaza ceasefire talks. However, Biden has not backed up tough talk with coercive action. He has not suspended $3.5 billion to fund the purchase of guidance systems and lethal weapons which fuel Israel's Gaza war. This is, as they say, "par for the course" for Biden who refused to call for a ceasefire until May 31st and has done nothing to ensure Israel commits since then.

Western commentators argue Gaza-based Hamas's military chief Yahya Sinwar, Haniyeh's successor as the movement's political chief, could also torpedo the deal. However, his approval was essential for Haniyeh to negotiate indirectly with Israel on a ceasefire because only Sinwar can order Hamas' fighters to stop fighting. Sinwar is under pressure from 1.9 million displaced, starving Palestinians who face death daily. Haniyeh's deputy Doha-based Khalil al-Haya is expected to join the negotiations.

In a bid to finish off ceasefire talks, Israel has stoked anger in the region by stepping up its bombing campaign in Gaza, killing 25 Palestinians on Friday and more than 100 on Saturday, On the home front, Israel is using the threat of Iranian retaliation as a means to convince Israelis that they must stand firm and tall in the face of attack. During a visit to an army recruitment centre Netanyahu told soldiers that Israel must be "prepared for defence, as well as offense." Hospitals in northern Israel have been put on alert and even set up underground care units and blood banks have opened for donations. Search and rescue teams have been deployed to major cities and tent camps set up in southern Israel to receive residents of the north in case of an Hizbollah attack. Israelis have hoarded supplies and bought oil lamps and candles in case of electricity outages. While civilian movements have not been curtailed, these preparations have been reported by international media, boosting the belief that Israel is beleaguered and at risk. This is fiction. Israel has the region's most powerful military. It has a US-guaranteed "edge," the advantage, against all regional antagonists combined. To exploit tensions for propaganda purposes, the Biden administration has sent warplanes to the region and redeploying naval carrier groups to offer protection Israel does not need.

The framework for a ceasefire deal has been on the table for months so there is no excuse for amendment or delay, a Western diplomatic source said, “Washington has made great progress in bridging the gaps in the issue of the agreement over a ceasefire in Gaza, which would represent the gateway for preventing war in the region.” The first stage of the three-stage deal mandates a 42-day temporary ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas to an area along the border between Gaza and Israel. Displaced Gazans would return to their places of residence and enjoy freedom of movement. Half Israel’s civilian captives and female soldiers would be released. In exchange for female Israeli soldier, Israel would free Palestinian prisoners. Six hundred lorry-loads of humanitarian aid, including 60 of fuel, would enter the Strip. Rehabilitation would begin of roads, electricity, water, sewage, and communications and this would continue through the period covered by the agreement.

Hamas has demanded the US, the UN and the international community guarantee that Netanyahu cannot halt implementation at the end of this stage as he wants to resume fighting.

During the second 42-day stage, there will be a permanent ceasefire, all Israeli men would be returned in exchange for the release of an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees. Israeli forces would withdraw completely.

During the third 42-day stage, remains of the dead would be exchanged and a three-to-five-year reconstruction plan would begin. All those affected would be compensated for their losses. While Egypt, Qatar and the US are guarantors, the US cannot be trusted due to its "ironclad commitment to Israel" and the coming change in administration in Washington in January 2025 following the presidential and Congressional elections.