Palestinians inspect damage in Qatari-funded Hamad City, following an Israeli raid, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip. Reuters

The outcome of yesterday’s escalation between Hizbollah and Israel has, as usual, been obscured by the fog of war. Israeli claims to have struck 100 Hizbollah rocket launchers ahead of a major missile and drone strike on key intelligence bases in central Israel. Hizbollah argues it hit 11 Israeli military targets in the first phase of its retaliation operation for Israel’s assassination of military strategist Fuad Shukr in Beirut last month. Damage assessments were not promptly forthcoming from either side. At this stage in the risky war games they are playing, neither wants full-scale regional conflict.

Independent of the fog of war produced by this flareup, fog has enveloped Gaza ceasefire talks during which Qatari, Egyptian, US, and Israeli negotiators have been trying to produce a deal to end Israel’s 10-month plus war on Gaza. Despite the US involvement as a mediator, Washington has failed to use the leverage it possesses to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to President Joe Biden’s May 31st plan. This accusation has been made by Israel’s negotiators, Israeli media and US diplomats and commentators.

Between November 24th-30th there was a temporary ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and 105 of Hamas' 253 captives were released in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. While there were negotiations in Qatar for an extension, on December 1st the ceasefire broke down, Hamas accused Israel of refusing to continue the captive/prisoner exchanges, hostilities resumed, Israeli negotiators left Doha and Hamas announced there would be no more releases until the war ended. The US blamed Hamas not Netanyahu for the breakdown. When there were rising international demands for a ceasefire, Biden vetoed three Security Council ceasefire resolutions. If Netanyahu had agreed to any one of them, Biden would have voted in favour.

The situation changed on May 31st when Biden launched his three-phase ceasefire/release plan which he called an "Israeli plan," perhaps, with the aim of bringing Netanyahu on board. This has not worked. Hamas signed on to the Biden plan on July 2nd but Netanyahu has repeatedly sabotaged negotiations to end the Gaza war and secure the release of the remaining 109 Israeli captives. Israel's negotiators have reported that while in Cairo or Doha they would put forward Netanyahu’s terms but when they returned home he would add conditions he knew would not be accepted by Hamas.

Frustrated over Netanyahu's tactics, the Biden administration drafted "bridging proposals" which it presented to Israel and Hamas last week. When US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv, he said Israel had accepted the proposal, but Hamas had not. Hamas argued the US had merged Israel’s demands with Biden’s original deal. This was a deliberate distortion of reality, deepening the fog of peacemaking.

Netanyahu’s office issued the following statement: “The prime minister reiterated Israel’s commitment to the latest American proposal regarding the release of our hostages — taking into account Israel’s security needs, which he insists on firmly.” No mention was made of a ceasefire which is, for Hamas, Palestinians, and the international community the primary goal of Biden’s proposal. Netanyahu is reluctant to commit to a temporary ceasefire until he has assurances that once this ends, Israel can return to its offensive to eliminate Hamas. This is at odds with the Biden plan’s provisions and expectation that a temporary ceasefire would lead to a permanent ceasefire and an end to the war.

Hamas also insists that Israel must withdraw from all of Gaza. Netanyahu told families of captives that Israeli troops will not withdraw from the strategic Philadelphi corridor on the Egypt-Gaza border (which Egypt also demands) and the Netzarim corridor which bisects Gaza. In response, an unidentified US official accused Netanyahu of "making maximalist statements" that are "not constructive to getting a ceasefire deal across the finish line." Netanyahu also seeks to create a wide buffer zone on the Gaza side of the strip's border with Israel. The Israeli army has blown up and bulldozed homes and other structures and cleared farmland for the proposed buffer zone.

In violation of the plan's provision of freedom of movement for Gazans, Netanyahu insists on screening Palestinians seeking to cross from southern to northern Gaza. He argues this would prevent armed Hamas fighter to return to the north and attack Israel. He seeks to veto the release of high-value Palestinian prisoners — like Fatah's Marwan Barghouti and the Popular Front's Ahmad Sadat — and deport those who have killed Israelis. He has rejected the US suggestion that the Palestinian Authority could operate the Rafah-Egypt passenger and goods crossing. Egypt closed the crossing after Israel occupied the Rafah area in May. This blockedthe entry of thousands of humanitarian aid lorries and prevented hundreds of wounded and sick Palestinians from securing life saving care outside Gaza.

Netanyahu has adopted this strategy for personal and political reasons. He is determined to keep himself in office for as long as possible. By claiming he must stay in office to wage the war, he postpones investigations over Israel's failure to predict and pre-empt Hamas’ October 7th attack on Israel. He offers the same argument to stall testifying at his ongoing trial for fraud, bribery, and breach of trust which could mean fines and jail time.

Instead of de-escalating and avoiding war, Netanyahu has cultivated escalation by Hamas' allies — Iran, Lebanon's Hizbollah, Yemen's Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias — by carrying out attacks and assassinations in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. So far, Israel’s antagonists have hesitated to launch major retaliatory strikes in order to avert all-out war. They have said they could renounce retaliation if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. This is a wise policy because Israel could inflict devastation on Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, particularly since the US has deployed naval vessels and war planes to protect Israel at a time its enemies need protection from Israel.

Netanyahu has long sought to drag its ally the US into a war against Iran on the assumption that the US, the global hyper-power and Israel, the regional superpower, would be victorious.

He began his campaign to promote Iran as the Middle East's main menace at least 15 years ago. During his address to the UN General Assembly in September 2012, he presented a cartoon of a nuclear bomb which he claimed Iran could build if its nuclear programme was allowed to proceed. Netanyahu drew a red line across the bomb to press the international community to intervene and prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb although Iran has repeatedly denied his accusation.

In March 2013, Oman mediated secret talks between the US and Iran on its nuclear programme. These covert contacts launched serious negotiations which produced the 2015 agreement limiting Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. This was signed by the five permanent Security Council members — the US, France, Britain, China, and Russia — and Germany. Netanyahu vehemently opposed the agreement which was overturned by his good friend Donald Trump in May 2018. During 2021-23, Netanyahu renewed his rejection when the Biden administration was engaged in negotiations to restore the deal.

While these negotiations failed, Iran's new reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has called for revival of the nuclear deal, lifting sanctions which have crippled Iran's economy, As he vowed to cultivate good relations with the West, Netanyahu can be expected to do everything possible, including launching a regional war, to prevent this from happening.