The West cannot fathom what Ukraine means to Russia

US President Joe Biden is under pressure from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to agree on Ukraine’s use of long-range Anglo-European Storm Shadow missiles on military targets deep inside Russia. The New York Times reports Biden could go along as long as the missiles fired are not provided by the US. Starmer argues that Ukraine should be left to decide the use of weapons supplied by allies if they are employed for defence and in accordance with international law. Biden hesitates. He has less than five months plus in office and does not want his legacy to be dominated by a failing Western proxy war in Europe as well as for arming Israel’s deadly and devastating war on Gaza which has earned him the nickname of “genocide Joe.”

Britain’s former national security adviser and ex-ambassador to Russia, Kim Darroch, has said that permitting Ukraine to fire these missiles deep into into Russia could amount to a risky escalation of the conflict. “We really don’t want to escalate this,” he told the Financial Times.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that this would cross Moscow’s red lines. He said the Ukrainians cannot operate these missiles without Western technical help and US satellite guidance. “This will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.” His statement coincided with the launch of a Russian counter-offensive to recapture the Kursk border region of Russia which was occupied by Ukraine in August.

Ukrainian use of long-range missiles has long been debated within the administration but Biden has hesitated to allow Ukraine to employ for striking deep into Russia with US missiles, which Kyiv already possesses. He fears that this could prompt Russia to aid pro-Iranian militias in this region to retaliate against US forces in Iraq, Syria and the Gulf.

The employment of Storm Shadow missiles could be a game changer. These missiles can strike targets 250 kilometres from launch sites and destroy bunkers, ammunition depots, military barracks, and airfields. The missiles are the product of British, French and Italian collaboration and use US parts. This means all four governments must agree on their use. So far, they have been approved only for hitting targets within Ukrainian territory. Ukraine has limited supplies of long-range drones and slow-moving cruise missiles which are easily shot down but they have not put out of action key military facilities inside Russia.

A researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Edward Hunter Christie wrote in Foreign Affairs, “Biden’s escalation management in Ukraine makes the West less safe.” Christie argues that Biden is sticking to a “failed approach to Moscow that does not learn or self-adjust.” This is just one of Biden’s faulty approaches to foreign affairs: Israel’s Gaza war is the most flagrant example.

His Ukraine approach stems from the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union and the determination to join NATO of former Warsaw Pact member countries which suffered under Soviet domination. Biden simply followed his predecessors by ignoring US Secretary of State Jame Baker’s assurance to Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not move “one inch eastwards” once East Germany reunited with NATO member West Germany. The West and NATO lied. Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic were admitted in 1999; Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2009; Albania and Croatia in 2009; Montenegro in 2017; and North Macedonia in 2020. Little wonder Russia’s leaders fumed and fussed.

Putin warned in 2008, 2021, and 2022 that Ukrainian recruitment by NATO constituted a threat to Russia itself and would not be tolerated. It was no surprise that Russia invaded Ukraine after Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to move forward with his country’s protracted bid to join NATO. The war prompted Finland and Sweden to join NATO in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

For Russia, Ukraine is not the same as Hungary, Poland and the other former Soviet states. Ukraine and Russia have been married for centuries, shared populations, culture, and social behaviour. Ukraine is and was regarded by Russia as a territorial buffer against the West. Russians, including Putin, suffered when Ukrainians collaborated with the Nazis during World War II.

Born in 1952 in St. Petersburg, Putin was raised in the ruins of this great and grand city which was besieged by Germany from September 1941 until January 1944 during which 1.5 million Russians died, most from starvation like Putin’s older brother. His father served in the army and was wounded, his grandmother was killed, and his uncles disappeared.

Biden, Johnson, and Stoltenberg cannot comprehend what Ukraine means to Putin and Russians. They have never known or served in war. Two words, “No NATO,” could have resolved the challenge they mounted against Russia over NATO. Both Ukraine and Russia have sustained losses during this war. The UN has reported 35,160 Ukrainian civilian casualties of whom 11,520 have been killed and 23,640 wounded. Around 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 100,000-200,000 wounded. Russia’s military has suffered 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 wounded. The war has inflicted extensive damage to Ukraine’s housing, infrastructure, public services, and commerce. Six million Ukrainians fled the country while 3.5 million have been displaced within Ukraine.

Before Biden and Starmer met in Washington to discuss the missile issue, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy travelled to Ukraine to reassure Kyiv of the enduring support of the West which has provided Ukraine with more than $100 billion in weaponry and munitions since the war began. Addressing Putin, Blinken declared that he “will not outlast the coalition countries committed to Ukraine’s success (or) outlast the Ukrainian people” who are determined to “decide their future.” Blinken also announced an additional $700 million in security aid to help Ukraine keep the war going, whatever the price in Ukrainian lives and property while US and allied arms manufacturers and merchants rake in billions of dollars in export sales.