Trump’s re-election could be worse for Mideast

Tuesday's US presidential and legislative elections could be a turning point for the worse for this region if Republican Donald Trump is victorious. A Trump administration would embolden Israel to act even more aggressively than over the past year without even the half-hearted restraints outgoing President Joe Biden attempted to impose on Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his far-right cabinet.

During his initial term in the White House (2017-2021) Trump upended decades of US policy on this region and contributed heavily to destabilisation and warfare.

On Palestine, Trump recognised Israel's capital in Jerusalem and moved the US embassy to the city although the fate of the holy city is meant to be decided by negotiations between Palestine and Israel. Trump declared that the US no longer viewed as illegal Israeli settlements in occupied East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Syrian Golan. This amounted to a denial of international law and the Fourth Geneva convention which bans an occupying power from transferring its population into occupied territory. The fate of Israeli settlements and settlers was also meant to be determined by negotiations between Palestine and Israel.  Trump also recognised Israeli annexation of Syria's Golan heights where Israel has also planted settlers. These actions were taken despite widespread international criticism and condemnation.

Trump undermined US endorsement of the two-state solution involving the emergence of a viable, sovereign Palestinian state within the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital. Trump entrusted his son-in-law Jared Kushner and other pro-Israeli figures to craft a two-part peace plan which would initially promote Palestinian economic development and eventually permit Palestinians to establish a rump state without viability or sovereignty on portions of Palestinian territory not illegally colonised by Israel.

As Trump's neophyte team did not have a clue about what they were doing they consulted closely with Binyamin Netanyahu who flatly rejected (and rejects) a Palestinian state.  Little wonder the Trump plan was rejected by the Palestinians and Arabs. A real estate magnate like his father-in-law, Kushner expressed interest in developing the Gaza coast for tourism. This would, of course, only take place if Palestinians were driven from Gaza.

Little wonder that Hamas responded with its ill-conceived, fatal October 7th attack on Israel to which Netanyahu has responded by devastating Gaza, assaulting the West Bank, and attacking Lebanon and Iran.

In 2018 Trump also withdrew US from the 2015 agreement limiting Iran's nuclear programme in exchange of lifting sanctions which have crippled Iran's economy. Tehran abided by the terms of the deal for a year while waiting for the other signatories — Germany, Britain, France, China, and Russia – to ease sanctions. They failed as the US retains an iron grip on banking and global finance. Consequently, Tehran breached the deal by enriching uranium above the 3.67 per cent purity to 20 and then 60 per cent (which is near 90 per cent needed for weapons), amassing a large stockpile of enriched uranium, and introducing banned advanced centrifuges for rapid enrichment. Iran also limited monitoring and inspections conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Trump's abandonment of the deal has deepened US-Iranian tensions and encouraged Israel to seek confrontation with Iran with the aim of drawing the US into a war with Iran. This has been Netanyahu's objective for at least two decades.

While Democratic party candidate and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris has been more critical than Biden of Israel’s conduct in Gaza and has displayed empathy for Palestinians, it is unclear how much she would change his policy of extending unconditional military and diplomatic support to Israel. While Biden has voiced support for the two-state solution, he has done nothing to implement this policy which is mandated by the international community and accepted by the Palestinians and their Arab allies.

However, the global political environment has altered over the past 13 months due to Israel's deadly and destructive war on Gaza which has undermined Israel's international standing and  strengthened demands for implementation of the two-state solution. It is recognised as the only means to end the 76-year war between Palestinians and Israelis and ease tensions in this highly volatile region. Since she has not declared herself a Zionist as Biden has done, Harris could be in an advantageous position to rein in Israel and push for realisation of a Palestinian state.

When asked why voters should support Harris, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent, said Trump and his right-wing Republican legislators have "worked overtime to block humanitarian aid to the starving children in Gaza." While Biden and Harris support humanitarian aid for Gaza, Israel blocked access to Gaza. Sanders stated, "And let me be clear. We will have, in my view, a much better chance of changing US policy with Harris than with Trump, who is extremely close to Netanyahu."

To achieve change, Sanders and like-minded legislators could cite the 2024 ruling of the International Court of Justice (ICJ).  It declared Israel's occupation of Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem is unlawful, its presence there should be withdrawn as soon as possible, colonisation should cease, colonists should be evacuated, and Palestinians should be compensated for their losses.

The ICJ dismissed the Israeli/US insistence that Palestinian self-determination must be negotiated between the two sides. Experts commenting on the court's rulings said the judges laid down the precedent that, "Freedom from foreign military occupation, racial segregation and apartheid is absolutely non-negotiable.”

The ICJ has yet to rule on the South African petition on whether Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian people while the panel of judges on the International Criminal Court (ICC) has still to authorise requested warrants for the arrest of Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.  While both bodies are under strong US pressure to drop these cases, their compliance would finish off  the Western pretence that the internationally recognised rule of law must apply to all violators. Why should the ICC bestow an arrest warrant curbing travel by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin for his Ukraine war while Netanyahu and Gallant remain free to go wherever they choose?