Some hopes for second Trump presidency in Africa

African leaders may have been quick to congratulate Donald Trump on his election, professing a desire for mutually beneficial partnerships, but there are meager expectations that his presidency will change things for this continent of over 1.4 billion people. In the wake of Trump’s win, Kenya’s William Ruto said his country “stands ready” to deepen its ties with Washington. Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu spoke of a second Trump administration ushering in an era of “earnest, beneficial, and reciprocal” cooperation.

Still, observers say African countries — once described by Trump as “shithole countries” — are definitely not going to be high on his to-do list. US foreign policy has not made Africa a priority for a long while — beyond seeing the continent through the lens of countering rivals such as Russia and China, said Charles Ray, chair of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Africa Program.

President Joe Biden talked about Africa as a key partner, said Ray, who served as the US ambassador to Zimbabwe between 2009 and 2012. But not much action followed those words. Africa “will be at the very bottom of (Trump’s) list of priorities” and any US action on the continent would likely be driven by his “transactional, ego-driven leadership style,” Ray added.

Many experts agree, citing Trump’s “America First” strategy. Murithi Mutiga, program director for Africa at the Crisis Group, says the president-elect is “a committed isolationist and clearly wants to pull back” on various fronts across the world. J. Peter Pham, Trump’s former special envoy to Africa’s Great Lakes and Sahel regions, says the next Trump presidency may look for a “win-win” situation in Africa.

That could include a renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which grants eligible African countries duty-free access to US markets, Pham said during a Voice of America broadcast. However, US lawmakers have been asking questions about whether African countries are complying with conditions under the program — or if they are undermining US foreign policy interests and national security, Pham said.

South Africa, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the program, was accused by US Ambassador Reuben Brigety in 2023 of providing weapons and ammunition to Russia for its war in Ukraine and its professed neutral stance on the war was brought into question. Basically, you don’t “kick America in the teeth” in ways that raise questions about compliance with such deals, Pham said.

Those that do “will be treated as pariahs,” said Ray, with the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The top concern is that the next Trump presidency will cut funding. In many parts of Africa, such cuts could be critical for millions of girls and young women whose reproductive health and choices are supported heavily by US-funded programs.

“The situation is already bad for girls (and) it will turn into a disaster without these services,” said Valentine Damitoni, a mother at 18. She regularly visits a local clinic in Zimbabwe’s capital of Harare to receive a contraceptive under a US-funded program that allows her to return to school without fears of falling pregnant again.

Max Primorac, a former acting deputy administrator of the US Agency for International Development — one of Africa’s biggest development aid donors — criticised some of the agency’s programs in Project 2025, a 900-page blueprint proposed by the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation to reshape the federal government.

In particular, Primorac criticized USAID programs that “promote abortion, climate extremism and interventions against perceived systematic racism.” The document is said to align closely with Trump’s vision — though he has distanced himself from it. Kiron Skinner, the head of policy planning at the US State Department during Trump’s first term in office, recommends in the document that in Africa, America should “focus on core security, economic, and human rights” rather than impose “radical abortion and pro-LGBT initiatives.”

In Africa’s volatile Sahel region, soldiers are increasingly booting out elected presidents and riding anti-Western sentiments to sever ties with longstanding allies like the United States and France — while turning to a new friend: Russia.

China, which casts infrastructural loans to African countries as mutually beneficial cooperation, rarely interferes in internal politics of the recipients countries. Russia, the continent’s biggest arms supplier, is often in bed with Africa’s military juntas. Both countries, as indeed America, have shown huge interest in Africa’s rich mineral resources.

Mutiga, of the Crisis Group, says “the problem historically has been that the US and the West viewed Africa as a problem” to be solved. China and others “saw it as an opportunity to be grasped.” The Biden administration announced last December that it had invested at least $22 billion in Africa and promised to do more. Trump, during his first term, continuously sought to slash foreign affairs funding, sometimes as much as 30%.

Analysts are concerned about whether key US projects in health, security and development would be implemented under Trump — especially at a time of worsening hunger and resurgent threats to democracy in Africa. For many ordinary Africans, Trump is just a distant leader who can’t do much about their everyday problems.

“Trump ... is not going to save us from hunger caused by our government,” said Isah Mohammed, a fruit seller in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja.

In Morocco, many rejoiced after Trump’s win, hoping his return to office would help the North African country further its push to win global recognition for its sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara.

“The return of the friend of Morocco to the White House,” proclaimed the country’s Assabah newspaper in its editorial. As part of a larger deal that included Morocco normalizing its ties with Israel, Trump shifted longstanding US policy and recognized Morocco’s sovereignty claims before leaving office in 2020.

Biden has not reversed that decision — but has also not advanced the Trump administration’s promise to build a consulate in the disputed territory. The stability in the Horn of Africa is increasingly threatened by the raging war in Sudan and growing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the latter’s business deal with Somalia’s breakaway region Somaliland.

Trump will likely cut funding to Somalia and engage more with Somaliland, predicts Rashid Abdi, an analyst at the Nairobi-based Sahan Research think tank.

The G20, the group of the world’s leading economies, welcomed the African Union as a permanent member last year — a powerful acknowledgement of the continent’s more than 50 countries and something Biden had said was “a long time in coming.” But despite that step on the global stage, observers say the union and its leaders have not lived up to expectations, failing to articulate their interests and table their demands as a united front.

“The question is often, what will Washington do, but, really, what is Africa’s interest?” said Mutiga, with the Crisis Group.

“We’re in an age of transactional global relations and unless Africa can engage in a way that articulates its own interests, America’s (interests in Africa) will continue to be determined by geopolitical competition with its rivals,” he said.

Associated Press