1000-day Russia-Ukraine war takes new turn

Reports are emerging that the United States will allow its Army Tactical Missile System to be used by Ukraine to strike inside Russia. Outgoing American President Joe Biden has relented the use of American weapons to hit Russia after resisting the pressure by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to be allowed to do so.

The war that began with Russia invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022 has crossed the 1,000-day milestone, an unexpectedly protracted war. When it began it seemed that Russia with its superior military strength in terms of numbers would overwhelm relatively smaller Ukraine. But the US and other European powers like Germany and France and other members of the European Union (EU) had rushed help to Ukraine in terms of money and arms. There is also the fact that the Ukrainians had put up a determined fight to oppose the Russians. In the last two-and-a-half-years and more, the fortunes of war fluctuated, with Russia starting off at an advantage and Ukraine gaining an upper hand soon, but not long enough. The West has supplied arms worth billions of dollars, and it had even imposed what it thought were crumbling economic sanctions against Russia.

While Ukraine has remained in the fight, Russia did not crumble because of the economic sanctions as was expected. President Biden has been an unflagging supporter of Ukraine and a determined ideological opponent of Russian stand. Biden took up the Cold War positions which were so popular in the old Cold War period from the late 1940 through late 1970s between the United States and the communist Soviet Union.

But Biden’s bid to revive the ideological clash between Western liberal democracy and Russia has failed to tap popular sentiment as it did in the past. In the old Cold War both the US and the Soviet Union avoided direct clash. And the same strategy continued ever since the war began in Ukraine. The Americans or its NATO allies in Europe have refused to be drawn into the conflict. They are supporting Ukraine indirectly.

If the reports are true about Americans allowing their missiles to be used by Ukraine to attack Russia, then the war could take a serious new turn, and deepen the crisis even more. But it seems a desperate bid by Biden, who remits office on January 19, and president-elect Donald Trump assumes charge on January 20, it seems a transitional phase. Trump is unlikely to increase American involvement in the war because Trump has made it clear that he would like to end the war. The intention is clear but the strategy is not. And until Trump manages to convince either Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he seems to share a sort of personal rapport, or Zelensky to back off, at least to agree to a temporary truce, there is not much hope that the conflict would not become bigger than it is now.

It would be interesting to watch what would be the continuity in America’s Ukraine policy between the Trump and Biden administrations. Even when there are sharp differences between the incoming and outgoing presidents, there is a certain element of continuity in policy because otherwise it would send a wrong message internally, and trigger confusion in the State Department and the Defence Department.

But Trump may stick to the administrative protocols because he is the one who wants to change what he thinks is harmful for America and Americans. So he is likely to call off the permission given by the Biden administration to let Ukraine American weapons to strike deep inside Russia. The speed of change in America’s Ukraine policy will have a decisive impact on the war in Ukraine.