French political crisis turns complicated

The far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen had brought down the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier in a no-confidence motion, with the help of the far-left. The party had however lost a by-election which its candidate fought on pulling down the Barnier government, and the independent who had won the election by a narrow margin opposed the idea of destabilising the government.

This is now seen by political observers as a rebuff to Marine Le Pen. Though her party is the largest party in the National Assembly, she does not have the numbers to form the government. And there are many parties, including that of Macron, who would not want to form a coalition with her, something she wanted to gain political legitimacy in the eyes of the voter as she wants to contest in the 2027 presidential election. Macron is ineligible because he has completed the mandated two terms. President Emmanuel Macron is now looking for another leader he could appoint as prime minister.

The Socialists are saying that Macron cannot play his own games and choose a person of his liking to be prime minister. They insist that the new prime minister has to be a Leftist. The Socialists are on the Left end of the political spectrum, and they are willing to do business with centrist Macron and his party. So, there are enough complications.

The grand re-opening of the Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris, which was attended by several world leaders, was a momentary distraction for Macron from his political troubles. He has a little more than two years in the office, and his hands are tied because neither his party nor his allies are able to form a government that will last.

What keeps Macron and his disenchanted allies together is their determination not to let Marine Le Pen win the presidential election. They will do all that they can to stop her. The question is whether that motive is good enough for them to keep France from teetering on the political edge as it were.

Marine Tondelier of the Green Party observed about Macron’s impatience to find a new prime minister that he (Macron) had “understood that he must stop doing things his own way and rushing into appointments that would lead to no-confidence motions.” Leader of the Socialists Boris Vallaud made it clear, “If it is not a left-wing Prime Minister we will not participate.” The Socialists in the bizarre scenario of the coalition politics voted to bring down the Barnier government.

Macron cannot dissolve parliament as he did in June after the European Parliament elections. He did so in a huff because the National Rally had won the majority of seats from France. Macron wanted to defeat the far-right party in the domestic elections, but Le Pen’s party emerged strong, though not strong enough to form the government. Macron could have invited her party to form the government but he would not want to do it as a matter of ideology.

Even now, he is talking to the leftists of all hues, the Green Party, the communists, the Socialists. The National Rally wants to be invited by Macron but he is not willing to oblige them.

Responding to the demand from his opponents that he should resign, Macron said he would not step down but continue in office until the end of his term in 2027. Meanwhile, he has to find a way of forging a coalition with enough numbers so that the government would not face another no-confidence motion. The French economy is reeling under low growth and inflation. The situation in France is grim if not desolate.