Syrians uncertain about their future after takeover

Globally dominant Western media have focused on the liberation of Syria’s prisoners and mass graves outside Damascus, but little is being reported about how Syrians are coping with uncertainty. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has shed his nom de guerre “Abu Mohammed al-Jolani” and tried to reassure Syrians that the new regime will be inclusive by embracing all sects and ethnic communities. He still has to deliver on his words by giving them a credible voice in governance.

He has, however, pledged inclusivity as a public relations ploy with the main aim of securing an end to US and EU sanctions and by the urgent need to attract reconstruction funds for the war-ravaged country. The economy has collapsed, the currency has fallen in value, electricity is fitful, fuel is in short supply and expensive, 69 per cent of Syrians live in poverty, six million are internally displaced and five million are refugees. Several years ago, while I was in Damascus, a businessman said about the return of refugees, “We don’t need more Syrians.” Once rebuilding begins, construction workers will be welcome and in high demand and expatriate businessmen will also go home.

While thousands of Syrian refugees in Lebanon have ignored uncertainty and hurried home after HTS took power, others living elsewhere have adopted a wait and see attitude. Countries hosting them have taken the same view and have paused asylum applications for Syrians without pressing them to leave. International Organization for Migration chief Amy Pope said last week the agency did not advise the large-scale return of people to Syria before the situation in the country has stabilised. She told AFP during a visit to Lebanon that “the system can’t bear that kind of influx” unless there is reconstruction in Syria. She added, “Sending people back will only destabilise the country further and will likely create pressures for people to migrate out again.”

The US and EU might hesitate to lift sanctions and encourage investment since Sharaa has, so far, not honoured his pledge to promote inclusivity. He appointed as interim prime minister Mohammed al-Bashir who had previously served in that post in the “Salvation Government” in the northwestern Idlib province which has been ruled by HTS since 2017. While Bashir did a reasonable job providing Idlib with power, water, food, fuel, and services, Idlib is not Syria. Furthermore, HTS reigned with an iron fist, detaining, and disappearing opponents and denying dissident groups services and supplies.

Bashir simply drafted into his cabinet the dozen HTS members of the Idlib “Salvation Government.” This prompted protests from the US-allied Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Southern Operations Room (SOR), a coalition of 25 armed groups from Deraa, Suwayda, Quneitra, and Damascus countryside which were the first to reach the capital. The transitional government is to remain in office until March 1st while the constitution and parliament have been suspended.

Institutional reforms are meant to be initiated during this period, but it is not clear what will happen after the three months are up. To convince uncertain Syrians that Sharaa intends to build an inclusive government rather than make a power grab, HTS will have to share with the Kurds, SOR, Turkish-backed expatriate Syrian National Council (which has little or no support in Syria), influential Syrians remaining in the major cities, and the public.

Meanwhile, HTS and its armed allies must impose law and order. The UN reported that in the wake of the fall of the Assads, “more than one million Syrians were displaced in less than two weeks, while hundreds of civilians, including at least 80 children, have been killed or injured.” There are reports of vigilante killings of members of the Assads’ Alawite community in Latakia and of ex-officials and army officers elsewhere. Men have been kidnapped from a mixed Christian, Shia, and Alawite town in central Hama province and four corpses were dumped at the side of the road in the nearby countryside, The Washington Post reported. One of the four was a Shia identified by his tattoo. There were killings in Damascus as well, some by pro-Assad thugs of opposition supporters.

The temporary government must get Syria’s administration, police force, and essential services working once again after years of inertia and corruption. While civil servants have returned to their offices and merchants reopened their shops, they remain uncertain over what might happen in coming days. Civilian watch groups have been created to protect their neighbourhoods.

While members of all communities have been told their rights will be respected, many Syrians have doubts. A Damascene Christian friend has said churches in the capital have been told not to ring their bells as this disturbs Muslims. Although there is a Christmas market, there is no large-scale public celebration. This will be confined to churches. Previously, Syrians of all sects had joined in seasonal festivities.

Women, half of the population, are sceptical about assurances despite the HTS declaration that their personal choices will be respected. HTS spokesman Ubaida Arnaout demonstrated the movement’s mindset when he said, “The essence of women and their biological and psychological nature does not align with all positions.” While he gave the example of the post of defence minister as being inappropriate for women, by stating their gender would deny them leadership positions prompted an angry response by Syrians fearing Talibanisation of their multi-communal country.

Hundreds of men and women demonstrated for democracy and women’s rights last Thursday in Damascus’ central Umayyad Square. Speakers of many persuasions climbed onto a platform and spoke their minds freely. The crowd chanted, “We want a democracy, not a religious state,” “Free, civil Syria” and “The Syrian people are one”. Some protesters brandished signs declaring, “No free nation without free women.” Syrian women have long assumed major roles in the country’s politics, commerce, education, and medicine.

Statements on the future relegation of women have also alerted Christians, Kurds, Druze, Alawites and Shias that they could be marginalised by HTS and its militia allies.