Who could replace Trudeau as next Canadian PM?

The race to be Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s successor began on Tuesday, a day after he resigned amid a looming trade war with the US and a divisive political climate at home. With the incumbent Liberal Party slumping badly in the polls, whoever wins the leadership contest could find themselves in opposition after the votes are counted, tasked with rebuilding the party.

US President-elect Donald Trump ally Elon Musk has thrown his support behind Trudeau’s rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, for Prime Minister. Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he will step down in the coming months means Canada’s Liberal Party needs a new leader. With the government likely to fall when Parliament returns in March, the party will be keen to put someone in place as soon as possible. The party’s national board is due to meet this week to begin the process, which in the past has taken months. Polls indicate the Liberals are on track to lose the election no matter who leads the party, which may put off some potential candidates. In the meantime here’s a look at some of the people who may throw their hats into the ring.

Historically, the party has almost exclusively drawn its leaders from Ontario and Quebec, but three of the possible candidates — Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney and Christy Clark — all have ties to western Canada, which could expand the party’s appeal in a region-dominated by the Conservatives.

The former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland is regarded as having triggered Trudeau’s resignation announcement by making her own three weeks ago. Once a key ally of the Prime Minister, she stepped down over disagreements with him about how to deal with the incoming Trump administration’s threat to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian goods and services.

The former Bank of England and Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has long been floated as a potential cabinet minister, with Trudeau confirming in 2024 that he had been encouraging him to enter federal politics; indeed, relations between Freeland and Trudeau were also understood to have deteriorated amid allegations he wanted to replace her with Carney.

In a statement on Monday, Carney, 59, said he would be “considering this decision closely with my family over the coming days”. His economic credentials at a time of global economic crisis are seen as an asset by some but there is some scepticism about his bid, given he has never held political office before.

Tradition dictates that Carney, now chair of Brookfield Asset Management, would need to secure a seat in parliament in order to take office if he won the party leadership.

François-Philippe Champagne has served in a number of top cabinet positions since 2018 including foreign affairs and is now the minister of innovation.

He has often been characterised as an “Energiser bunny” and credited with landing several lucrative deals for Canada, including a C$2.8bn deal with Stellantis to boost EV production in Canada and a C$7bn project with Volkswagen to build its first gigafactory outside Europe. That business acumen as well as his reported charm and optimism could serve him well in a Liberal leadership role. He was also born in Quebec, a province that has often been key to winning federal elections. Just weeks before Trudeau’s resignation announcement, a US media outlet declared in a lengthy profile piece that the Foreign Minister Melanie Joly was a “top contender” to replace him. Its publication forced her to restate her support for the Prime Minister, although she would not explicitly deny her leadership ambitions.

Indo-Asian News Service