New Lebanese president embarks on reformist path

By electing Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun to be the country’s 14th president parliament committed Beirut to forming a government which will enact reforms required to access $21 billion in aid to reset the economy and reconstruct war damage. The frontrunner in a field of four serious candidates, Aoun was elected by 99 of parliament’s 128 members on January 9th.

This was the fractious parliament’s 13th try to replace President Michel Aoun (no relation) who left office when his six-year term ended in October 2022.

Joseph Aoun is the fourth consecutive president to have served as army commander. The fact that they were chosen shows just how broken the Lebanese political system has become. A fifth general, its greatest president Fuad Chehab, was elected in 1958 after Lebanon’s first brief civil conflict. As none of his three military successors have matched his service, he remains a major challenge to Joseph Aoun.

It is ironic that Joseph Aoun, the US, French and Saudi candidate, should secure more than the two-thirds of the vote needed for his elevation through the backing of Shia Amal and Hizbollah as the latter is regarded as a “terrorist” movement by the US. In recent years US aid totalled $2.5 billion to the Lebanese army, a force of 80,000, which Washington sees as a counter to Hizbollah. Political necessity produces conflicted allies.

Ahead of the vote, Hizbollah’s candidate Suleiman Frangie dropped out of the race and the movement, along with its Amal ally, said it would submit blank ballots in the first round, but would commit the duo’s 30 votes for Aoun in the second.

A Shia source told Beirut al-Jadeed television, “We will vote for the army commander after an excellent meeting with him that discussed all political, security and reconstruction concerns.” Once again Hizbollah asserted decisive political muscle despite the weakening of its military arm since October 2023 when its fighters staged cross-border attacks on Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza.

In recent months, Israel turned Lebanon into a war zone, assassinated Hizbollah’s charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah, and decimated its fighters. Hizbollah’s allies in Iran’s axis of resistance have been neutralised by Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza and the overthrow of the Assad government in Syria. To maintain influence, Hizbollah’s political wing has cultivated the Lebanese public which demands an end to war, economic recovery and reconstruction.

Aoun has, reportedly, agreed that Hizbollah-Amal backed caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati will continue in office and form a new cabinet which will be in charge until parliamentary elections in 2026. Mikati has been praised for deft handling of the country’s five-year crisis, exacerbated by the absence of a president. Despite limitations of his caretaker status, Mikati’s cabinet has met 60 times, adopted 1,211 decisions, and issued more than 3,700 decrees.

In a frontal challenge to Lebanon’s compromised and corrupted political elite, Aoun has proclaimed major reformist policies. He insists that Lebanon’s army must have a “monopoly of weapons,” without calling for Hizbollah to disarm.

However, he has reassured Hizbollah by proposing a defence strategy which would involve the movement by aligning diplomatic, economic, and military efforts to address Israeli occupation, while strengthening Lebanon’s sovereignty. He stated, “I will discuss a defence strategy for the Lebanese state to fight against the Israeli invasion. And I do mean the Lebanese state.” Until now the Lebanese state – via the army — has not seriously confronted Israel.

Aoun promised to address Lebanon’s banking crisis during which deposits of citizens have been frozen and devalued. “Under my leadership, banks will be held accountable and subject to the law,” he stated.

On the external plane, Aoun pledged to strengthen ties with both east and west while maintaining strong Arab ties and avoiding involvement in regional conflicts.

To improve governance, Aoun must reduce rampant corruption and enact serious reforms. This will be a monumental mission. The new government must end the domination of the political elite which installed itself in the wake of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war (1975-1990). These politicians have refused to tackle Lebanon’s economic melt-down during which the currency has fallen in value by 90 per cent and transformed the country from being mid-income to low-income with 55 per cent of Lebanese falling below the poverty line.

UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert urged Aoun to act without delay. “The tasks facing the Lebanese state are too monumental to waste time,” adding, ”The time has come for every decision-maker to place Lebanon’s interests above any personal or political considerations.”

Lebanese media have responded positively to Aoun’s election. During his term (2017-2024) as army chief he has managed to maintain the integrity of the army and its non-involvement in politics. The army has weathered unrest stirred by the 2019 protest movement, the 2020 explosion which devastated Beirut port, tensions fuelled by the 2022 parliamentary election, and the never-ending economic crisis.

L’Orient Today quoted a Western diplomat as saying in 2022, “Joseph Aoun is much more than a military man; he’s also a skilled political strategist. To lead an army as diverse as Lebanon’s under such circumstances requires a deep understanding of politics. He will prove himself as president.” Aoun’s most urgent task will be to direct the new army chief to deploy in Hizbollah’s area of operations in south Lebanon under the terms of the November 27th-end of January ceasefire with Israel. Hizbollah fighters are obliged to withdraw 30 kilometres across the Litani river and relinquish heavy weaponry. Only the Lebanese military personnel and UN peacekeepers are to be present in the area and along the border with Israel.

Although Hizbollah has pledged “total” cooperation, this is an extremely delicate mission since the south is Hizbollah’s stronghold and its fighters are seen by inhabitants as the only force capable of opposing Israel. It was driven by Hizbollah in May 2000 from its 22-year occupation zone in the south.