Most Americans say history will view Biden as a failure

Alicja Hagopian, The Independent

President Joe Biden has officially passed the reigns to President Donald Trump — and he leaves office with a tarnished legacy, according to a recent poll. In Biden’s final months, he commuted thousands of sentences and issued dozens of pardons, most notably for his son, Hunter Biden, who faced jail time for gun and tax charges, a move that was slammed by critics on both sides of the political aisle. With Trump now moving into the White House for his second term in office, two in three Americans believe that Biden will be viewed as a failure, according to a Prolific poll exclusively for The Independent.

The poll of 1,938 US adults, taken one week before the inauguration, found that 67 percent of respondents think that history will look back on Biden as a failure. Just 33 percent believe that Biden will be seen as a success. Even among Democrats, only a small majority (58 percent) believe that Biden’s presidency will be seen as a success, while 42 percent think the opposite. “The data related to the American public’s view of Biden’s presidency paints a fairly clear view of both the polarisation that defines American politics today, and also the changing public perception of Joe Biden,” said Andrew Gordon, researcher at Prolific.

“Even among Democrat voters, some perceive Biden’s presidency as a failure, potentially highlighting his failure to secure the Democrats in the White House for the next four years.”

Unsurprisingly, nine in 10 Republicans think that Biden’s presidency will go down in history as a failure, while eight in ten independent voters also think the same.

African Americans were the most likely to view Biden as a success (54 percent), followed by young people under 24 years old (39 percent). “This division might not be just about Biden as a president — it’s likely a reflection of broader trends in American politics, where party affiliation increasingly determines how voters perceive leadership and policies,” added Gordon. Biden to Trump: fear and hopeOverall, Biden’s net favorability has tanked since the election, sitting at a low of —19 percent. His public perception has been negative on average since September 2021.

During the entirety of Biden’s presidency, Trump’s public perception was also consistently unfavorable. But Trump overtook Biden’s popularity in November 2023, and his favorability has soared since being elected in November 2024. Looking forward to the next four years, slightly more Americans are fearful on average (46 percent) than hopeful (41 percent) about Trump coming back into office.

Already on his first day back in office, Trump is planning to usher in over 200 executive orders covering everything from immigration to trans rights. The vast majority of Republicans are hopeful about Trump’s second term, while most Democrats are fearful of the next four years. Independent voters have more complex feelings. Though the majority (79 percent) believe Biden will go down as a failure, these non-partisan voters are more likely to be afraid (42 percent) rather than hopeful (28 percent) of how Trump’s second term will play out.

In addition, minorities are more concerned than average over Trump’s return to the White House. Hispanic Americans are the most fearful (61 percent), followed by Asians (53 percent) and African Americans (46 percent). At Monday’s inauguration, President Trump gave a nod to minority voting groups, whom he credited with breaking records in support, saying: “To the Black and Hispanic communities, thank you for the trust and love you gave to me,” adding, “I will not forget it.”

President Trump also used the inaugural address to double down on a wide range of anti-immigration executive orders, declaring a national emergency at the Southern border, reinforcing his “Remain in Mexico” policy, and pledging to return millions of illegal migrants. These front-and-center policies are likely to be augmenting concern among ethnic minority groups, explains Prolific researcher Andrew Gordon.

“Hispanic and Asian Americans in particular express significantly higher levels of fear about Trump’s presidency, likely reflecting concerns over policies and rhetoric perceived as exclusionary or harmful such as Trumps pledge to deport immigrants and close the border,” Gordon told The Independent. “This is a fairly stark illustration of how race and ethnicity shape perceptions of leadership. The polarisation across both partisan and ethnic lines suggests that Trump may have considerable difficulty in fostering any sense of unity in a deeply divided nation.”