Myanmar military junta’s election gambit

Four years after overthrowing an elected government of National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi, the military government in Myanmar is readying to hold elections in the country. This comes in the midst of armed conflict in the country between armed rebel groups who have been scoring victories over the government forces.

Observers believe that holding elections in the middle of the armed conflict will likely increase violence. The advice of the ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations), of which Myanmar is a member, is that generals holding power must open a dialogue with the rebel groups and end the violence before holding elections. But it seems that the generals want to push the idea of election. It is evident that only those political parties which are pro-government and approved by the military will be allowed to contest the elections.

So, the proposal to hold elections is not an effort to restore democracy as it was before the 2021 coup, but one that will elect a military-compliant party to come to power. The rebel groups have made their intention to continue to fight the government forces and oppose the elections. A member of one of the rebel groups said that they will not target civilians during election, but they will attack the electoral machinery, including polling booths.

David Mathieson, an independent Myanmar analyst, said, “There is a very real danger these elections could turn into a bloodbath if revolutionary forces decide to attack polling stations, election officials and party candidates.”

Confirming Mathieson’s apprehension as it were, a Karenni – one of the two rebel units of the Karens, an ethnic group to the north – commander said, “The election is one of factors that will push us to do things much faster.”

The government had carried out a census to prepare the voters’ lists. And they have been able to carry the census of the voters in less than half of the 330 parliamentary seats because the other areas are in the control of the rebel groups. If carried through, it will be an imperfect and incomplete election. It seems that the military generals realise that they lack legitimacy in the global fora, and the election is a way of legitimising their rule.

The necessity to get a democratic visage is due to the fact that by summer 15 million people would face food shortages in the country. The people will need aid, and international aid at that.

China has been supporting the generals in power in Myanmar, but the rebel groups have been growing in strength. It appears that the military fears that it cannot withstand the armed rebel groups for too long and would like to hand over power to the civilian groups. But there is an intrinsic problem in the Myanmar polity.

The parties in power, whether they are from the military or democratically-elected, they are not willing to recognise the ethnic groups and their military demands like that of the Karens and the Rohingya. Aung San Suu Kyi, the most popular leader in Myanmar, was not willing to concede the demands of the Rohingya and supported state military operations. It forced the Nobel Committee to withdraw the Nobel Peace Prize which they had awarded her in 1991 because of her fight against dictatorship and her support for human rights.

Even if fair elections are held, and this is unlikely, and the National League of Democracy of Aung San Suu Kyi were to come back to power, the problem posed by the Karens and Rohingya will remain. And that will be a great challenge to the democracy advocates in Myanmar. The military has failed to contain the rebels through force. The democracy leaders have to find a better way of dealing with the ethnic challenge.