Trump starts talking to Putin and Zelensky

United States’ Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday, said it was unrealistic for Ukraine to go back to the pre-2014 borders even as President Donald Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the phone. No details of Trump’s conversation with the two leaders have been released.

But the Kremlin spokesperson said, “There is a political will, which was emphasised during yesterday’s conversation, to conduct a dialogue in search of settlement.” Hegseth said in Brussels, “We will only end this devastating war – and establish a durable peace – by coupling allied strength with a realistic assessment of the battlefield.”

The realistic assessment would include the military and humanitarian aid that the US and European Union (EU) had provided Ukraine in the last four years – US$146 billion of which US$62 billion was from the US. It was of course an indirect threat to both Europe and Ukraine that the US would cut off aid, or reduce it.

What is worrying Ukraine and Europe is that Trump would make a direct deal with Putin over the heads of Ukrainians and Europeans. Diplomatic protocol demanded that Trump should have consulted the European and Ukraine leaders before starting to talk to Putin.

But President Trump has never been the one to stick to diplomatic norms. He wants the shortest and quickest answers to problems, and he thinks that he should talk directly to the leaders who matter in the dispute. So, he had talked to Putin and Zelensky. Putin would prefer to deal with US directly and not be bothered by the intervention of the European Union (EU) leaders. But in the long run, the peace agreements when they are reached need the cooperation of Europe to implement the agreements.

The message that Hegseth had delivered in Brussels has some commonsensical elements. Pegseth’s point is realistic that Russia cannot be pushed back from Crimea. In principle, letting Russia get away with the occupation of Crimea sets a bad precedent. It encourages more violations of international law. And that is indeed what has happened in February 2022 when Russia took over three small republics in eastern Ukraine and declared them to be part of Russia.

In realistic terms, Russia cannot be punished for violating international norms. The war has proved that Ukraine cannot defeat Russia. And it is equally true, that Russia cannot hope to overrun Ukraine as will. The Ukrainians have stood their ground, and they had paid a heavy price for it on the battlefield. So, It has been a bloody war with no results. Trump’s first move to talk with Putin to end the war is a good move in itself. It also seems to be the case that Putin was indeed waiting for the call from Washington because Russia wants a ceasefire because it has suffered huge losses in men and materials.

The Trump opening needs to be sustained. And Trump cannot impose short-sighted solutions as he has been trying to do in Gaza. The solution has to be a well-rounded one, and it has to be accepted by all. A solution cannot be imposed on Ukrainians and Gazans because they have been each in their own way battered by the war.

Increased supply arms to Ukraine will keep Ukraine in the war, but it cannot guarantee victory. So talks cannot be avoided. Trump has helped by making the first move on the talks front. There will of course be a lot of haggling, and both sides will hang on obdurately to their position before shifting their positions. The question is whether the Trump administration will show the patience required to achieve results. The signs are that Trump is an impatient man. He wants to solve problems as he sees fit.