Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had sensed that United States President Donald Trump is likely to do business with Russia and its President Vladimir Putin, and that he will be willing to sacrifice Ukrainian interests to do so. Donald Trump had a telephonic conversation with Putin, and also with Zelensky.
Ever since the war broke out with Russia in February 2022, Zelensky had support from the United States and the European Union. With Donald Trump taking over as president, Zelensky is quick enough to grasp the point that Ukraine cannot depend on US support. So, Zelensky, speaking at the Munich Security Conference this week, pointed out the need for a European army. It can be said that while arguing for an army of Europe, he is doing it to protect Ukraine more than Europe. Ukraine has to argue that if Russia can threaten Ukraine, then it will threaten Europe as well. This is the only argument that will bring Europe to the side of Ukraine.
Zelensky has argued persuasively that the US will respect Europe only if it is strong on its own, and it is not dependent on the US. It is a good point on any day. It is also interesting that Zelensky is talking of an army of Europe and he does not refer to NATO. He understands that there is no NATO without the US, and that it is better to leave it out altogether.
He is also aware of the reluctance of the European members of the NATO to admit Ukraine to the military alliance because then it would drag the whole alliance into war with Russia. But he is making the same case when he talks of the army of Europe and includes Ukraine as part of this armed Europe. What the Ukrainian president is effectively arguing for is a kind of a NATO-like alliance without the US in it.
Of course, it remains to be seen whether the other European powers like Germany, France, Poland and the Scandinavian countries are convinced that they should stand with Ukraine against Russia. At the political level, the stand is clear.
Europe does not want Russia to extend its boundary to Ukraine. If Russia wanted a buffer zone like Ukraine with NATO, then the Europeans would prefer Ukraine to be that territory which stands between Russia and Europe. Given his blinkered view of Making America Great Again (MAGA), Trump does not seem to care much for the historical significance of the US-Europe relations. Zelensky, who faces a tough situation in Ukraine, has grasped this change in American attitude towards Europe during the Trump presidency.
He is making demands of his own for Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. He is saying that no agreement is possible without Ukraine being present at the negotiating table. He is trying to preempt Trump’s possible ploy of clinching a deal with Russia directly, over the heads of Ukraine as well as Europe. And he rightly raising the alarm.
It is clear however that Zelensky will not be able to demand for American aid the way he did during Joe Biden’s presidency. So, Ukraine and Zelensky are in trouble because they will have to cope with the Russian challenge without American help.
Ukraine is not as important for America as Israel is. While Europe is quite resentful of Trump and his administration, there does not appear to be an alternative plan in place where the American backing is minimal.
Ever since the end of the Second World War 80 years ago, Europe has been willy-nilly leaning on the American crutches. The time has come for Europe to stand on its own legs. Zelensky hopes that Ukraine could be the trigger for Europe’s throwing off its American crutches.