Peacemaking agenda

On March 1, Turkey’s Kurdish militants declared an immediate ceasefire in their 40-year war against the Turkish state. The timing was significant. This was the first day of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan when, by tradition hostilities should cease and peacemaking should begin.

The ceasefire followed the publication of a letter from imprisoned Turkish Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan who ordered the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), which he founded, to disarm and dissolve. The PKK insurgency killed 40,000 in Turkey, uprooted hundreds of thousands of Kurds in the southeast, and spilled over into Iraq and Syria. A Kurdish congress is expected to convene soon to map out a reconciliation process with Ankara.

Ocalan justified his shift by saying, “I am making a call for the laying down of arms and I take on the historical responsibility for this call.” Times have changed, he said Turkey’s democratisation has overtaken “armed resistance” as the means to end “restrictions on [Kurdish] basic rights and freedoms.” The leftist PKK was established in 1978 to fight for disadvantaged Kurds in southeastern Turkey and was branded as a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and Europe.

Ocalan’s declaration amounts to a command. For many Kurds, he is seen as an iconic figure and the PKK’s tandard bearer and perpetual prisoner. At the time, the PKK was created Turkey faced conflicts between left and right and large areas of the country were off-limits to the government which was ousted by the military in September 1980.

In 1979, Ocalan fled to Syria where he created a home base, indoctrinated followers in Marxist ideology, and, with Damascus’ aid, established training camps for PKK fighters in Lebanon. The PKK rebellion began in 1984. Ocalan repeatedly said he did not seek to establish a separate Kurdish state in Turkey and called for negotiations on a Kurdish federal region within Turkey.

He remained in Syria until 1998 before Ankara compelled Damascus to expel him. Ocalan fled to Europe in a vain search for asylum. He travelled to Kenya where he was abducted by Turkish agents, confined on Imrali island in the Sea of Marmara, and tried and sentenced to death for separatism and treachery. Following the abolition of the death penalty in Turkey in 2002, his sentence was commuted to life. In 2009, four PKK prisoners and one Communist detainee joined Ocalan who for a decade had been the sole inmate at the maximum-security prison.

Ocalan’s letter was read out last week by Kurdish political allies in Istanbul. This came after a year of covert negotiations launched by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s far-right partner, Nationalist Movement Party chief Devlet Bahçeli. He revealed last October that if Ocalan made a formal demand for PKK disbandment, he might secure release from prison once the war is terminated. Bahçeli proposed fresh democratic and economic reforms which could assure the Kurdish electorate that it would benefit politically and economically from an end to the war.

Ocalan’s shift has been dictated by the defeat by the Turkish armed forces of the PKK within Turkey and in the mountains of northern Iraq, where the PKK has had its rear bases. The PKK’s Iranian affiliate is also expected to abide by Ocalan’s order.

Turkey’s transformation from war to peacemaking has in part been prompted by regional destabilisation caused by Israel’s war on Gaza, crackdown on West Bank Palestinians, offensive in Lebanon, and attacks on Syria and Iran. Turkey has verbally condemned Israel’s actions but taken no action. Ankara’s aim is to solidify its internal front while avoiding involvement in neighbourhood brawls.

An end to the PKK rebellion could have far-reaching Turkish domestic, regional, and international fronts. On the domestic front, this could reduce the Turkish army’s deployment in the southeast and along the country’s borders with Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Ocalan, 75, and younger Kurdish politicians could take part in negotiations for a peace settlement. It is reported that Ocalan and PKK colleagues could be freed and settle in Suleimaniya in the Kurdish autonomous region of Iraq.

One million still displaced Kurds driven from their homes during the insurgency could return to their villages and lands. As Kurds are 20 per cent of the population, Erdogan could be given a political boost ahead of the 2028 election when his current term expires. He could also gain a great deal if he takes advantage of peace to redevelop southeastern Turkey which has been both ignored for decades and ravaged during the conflict.

On the regional front, PKK-fighters in Iraq’s Qandil mountains could disarm and disband. Turkey could cease attacks on them and withdraw troops from Iraq. Thousands of Iraqi Kurds displaced by Turkey’s military operations could also return to their homes, villages, and land.

Turkey could halt military operations against the PKK-affiliated, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) along the Turkish-Syrian border and in northeastern Syria. The SDF has carved out an autonomous zone in this area which covers 25 per cent of Syria where Syria’s main oilfields are located. Since the 2014 launch of the anti-Daesh campaign, the US has based troops in this zone.

Their presence has held off a full-scale Turkish assault on the SDF and the area it governs. However, once Ankara’s war with the PKK ends, the SDF could come under pressure do a deal with Syria’s new Turkish-sponsored Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rulers. This could prompt the US to send its troops home. Donald Trump would be eager to order withdrawal as was dissuaded from pulling them out during his first term in office.

On the international front, Erdogan would gain stature as a successful peacemaker and Turkey would win kudos and credibility for finally resolving its Kurdish problem. Turkey could even renew its bid for membership in the European Union.

Photo: TNS