Trump’s sudden U-turns create regional unease

Donald Trump’s flip-flops have confused both Palestinians and Iranians and stoked regional tensions during this month. On the one hand, Trump chose to threaten Hamas, which the US branded a terrorist organisation in 1997. He proclaimed a “last warning” to Hamas to release Israeli captives held in Gaza and/or suffer elimination. “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say,” Trump posted on his social media platform.

To back up his bluster, Trump has restored delivery of 900-kilogramme bombs suspended during the Biden administration and pledged another $12 billion in arms for delivery to Israel which had already received $20.5 billion worth of arms under ex-President Joe Biden.

On the other hand, his outburst was preceded by and, perhaps, predicated on the revelation by Israeli columnist Barak Ravid in Axios that the US has been holding direct talks with Hamas in Qatar where negotiations have been mediated by Doha and Cairo. The US envoy for hostages Adam Boehler has been involved in lengthy meetings with Hamas which have focused on releasing captives and strengthening and extending the ceasefire.

Hamas officials have said that these talks could advance to Gaza’s post-war governance and reconstruction. Hamas supports the Egyptian plan, endorsed by the Arab and Islamic summits, for rebuilding devastated Gaza over five years under a non-partisan committee of Palestinian technocrats. This would require Hamas to end its administration of the strip and for its militia to abide by the ceasefire.

Neither Hamas nor the Trump administration regard direct talks as unprecedented. Instead, there is recognition that they are essential when trying to defuse conflicts. Hamas and other Palestinian factions, however, regard direct talks with Israel as a red line which they cannot cross.

Hamas leaders consider talks with US and European officials as recognition of Hamas as a legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, the status accorded the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) by the US in late 1988 after the Palestine National Council issued its Declaration of Independence on November 15th. This followed direct Fatah/PLO contacts with the US during the 1970s and 1980s.

Trump is driven by the desire to see all 24 living Hamas’ captives, including one dual US-Israeli citizen, Edan Alexaner, 21, freed and the return of the bodies of 35 captives. Trump stole the limelight when he met eight released hostages last week while threatening Hamas with “Hell to pay” if the rest are not released. Nothing Trump likes better than personal publicity. While he commands the news, he is happy.

However, his carrot-and-stick approach to Tehran has not produced the results he seeks with Iran. In a letter he said he sent to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Trump offered to reopen talks on limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions which have crippled Iran’s economy. However, this was coupled with talks on Iran’s ballistic missiles arsenal and regional activities and coincided with ratcheting up the US “maximalist sanctions” regime which is intended to bring to zero Iran’s oil sales, the government’s chief source of revenue.

It is reported that US naval vessels could also hijack in international waters ships loaded with Iranian oil bound for customers. In a not-so-veiled threat of military action, Trump stated, “We have a situation with Iran that, something’s going to happen very soon. Very, very soon.”

Khamenei — who is Iran’s ultimate authority — responded by saying a “bullying govern-ment” — not mentioning the US by name – was not aimed at “solving problems” but imposing its agenda on Iran. He argued, Trump’s conditions “will be about defence capabilities, about international capabilities of the country.”

The US “will urge Iran) not to do (certain) things, not to meet some certain people, not to go to a certain place, not to produce some items; your missile range should not be more than a certain distance. Is it possible for anybody to accept these?” Khamenei asked.

Trump is not trusted in Tehran as he pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal which had imposed major limitations on Iran’s nuclear development. At the time of the US exit, Iran was in full compliance. Although, Biden pledged to return to the deal when campaigning for the presidency, he also tried and failed to impose conditions on Iran when negotiations began, causing talks to falter and fail.

US diplomats who had been involved in negotiations on the nuclear deal were critical of Biden as they expected him to sign an executive order, returning both sides to unconditional compliance as soon as he took office.

Trump’s sanctions and threats have undermined Iran’s moderate President Massoud Pezeshkian who campaigned in the June 2024 election to press for resuming negotiations. The conservative-dominated parliament has sacked Economy Minister Abolnaser Hemmati and forced the resignation of Vice President Mohammed Javad Zarif, both prominent reformists. This could not have happened without the approval of Khamenei.

Pezeshkian responded to the rebuff by saying, “My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations [on the nuclear programme] but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader.” Just as US policy “parameters” are set by the erratic Trump.

On the global scene, Trump has created chaos and consternation. He has proposed and postponed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico but has not dropped his call for Canada to become the 51st US state despite Canadian rejection. He has vowed to annex the Panama Canal and Denmark’s Greenland territory. He has distanced the US from NATO, prompting Britain and Europe to scramble to boost defence spending and he has called on Ukraine to make a disadvantageous peace with Russia.

To save the US taxpayers money, Trump has also suspended 83 per cent of the funding for the US Agency for International Development USAID, depriving communities USAID directly helps and international agencies of funds for food and medicine for the world’s poorest communities.