Le Pen's presidency bid in jeopardy after election ban

A French court on Monday threw into severe doubt far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s 2027 bid for president, handing her a five-year ban on running for office after convicting her over a fake jobs scheme. She was also given a four-year prison term by the Paris court but will not go to jail, with two years of the term suspended and the other two to be served outside jail with an electronic bracelet. Le Pen, a three-time presidential candidate who scented her best-ever chance of winning the French presidency in 2027, will appeal, her lawyer Rodolphe Bosselut said.

Laurent Jacobelli, a lawmaker and spokesman for Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party, added the 56-year-old was in a “fighting mood” after her conviction.

Analysts warned that Monday’s verdict could further deepen France’s political crisis. Le Pen was convicted over a scheme to take advantage of European Parliament expenses to employ assistants who were actually working for her far-right party in France. A total of 24 people — including Le Pen — were convicted in the case, all of them RN party officials or assistants. The court estimated the scheme they were implicated in was worth 2.9 million euros ($3.1 million). Le Pen as well as the other officials were banned from running for office, with the judge specifying that the sanction should come into force with immediate effect even if an appeal is lodged. “The court took into consideration, in addition to the risk of reoffending, the major disturbance of public order if a person already convicted... was a candidate in the presidential election,” said judge Benedicte de Perthuis.

Le Pen has denied any wrongdoing. She left the courtroom before the judge announced the prison sentence, and a crisis meeting was convened at the party’s Paris headquarters.

She was to give a primetime TV interview to broadcaster TF1 later Monday.

With her RN emerging as the single largest party in France’s parliament after the 2024 legislative elections, polls predicted Le Pen would easily top the first round of voting in 2027 and make the second round two-candidate run-off. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron cannot run in that election because of a constitutional two-term limit.

Many Le Pen supporters were outraged. “It’s a political assassination,” fumed Marc Mahieu, 63, suggesting the court ruling could boost support for the far-right. “It’s disgraceful! They’ve destroyed her,” Jacqueline Bossuyt, 78, said in the northern town of Henin-Beaumont, the far-right’s stronghold. The reaction from Moscow was swift, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying: “More and more European capitals are going down the path of violating democratic norms.” Other far-right leaders and pro-Moscow figures in Europe expressed shock. “Je suis Marine!” (“I am Marine”), Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, one of her main allies in the EU, wrote on X.

Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders said on X: “I trust she will win the appeal and become President of France.” There was also unease within the political mainstream in France. “It is not healthy that in a democracy, an elected official is prohibited from standing in an election and I believe that political debates should be decided at the ballot box,” said the leader of MPs in parliament of the right-wing Republicans, Laurent Wauquiez.

The leader of the hard-left France Unbowed, Jean-Luc Melenchon, said that “the decision to remove an elected official should be up to the people”.

If Le Pen is unable to run in 2027, her back-up plan is her 29-year-old protege and RN party leader Jordan Bardella, who is not under investigation in the case.

“Of course he has the capacity to become president,” Le Pen said in a documentary broadcast on Sunday. But there are doubts even within the RN over whether Bardella has the experience needed. Political analyst Mujtaba Rahman, of Eurasia Group, predicted Le Pen’s appeal could become “intensely political”.

He added: “Le Pen’s political fate was not decided today.” Le Pen took over the then-National Front (FN) from her father Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2011 and set about de-toxifying its image with voters. Her father, who died in January, was often accused of making racist and anti-Semitic comments. During the court case, prosecutors said the RN used the 21,000-euro ($23,000) monthly EU parliament allowance to pay staff in France, hiding the scheme behind “fictitious” posts in the European legislature’s offices. “It was established that all these people were actually working for the party, that their MEP had not assigned them any tasks,” said the judge.

Agence France-Presse