Power equations among countries and in regions change pretty fast especially when that country and that region is going through difficult times and through times of instability. This has been so in the cases of Burkina Faso, Male and Niger.
All the three have gone through military coups, and there is a situation of civil war in each of them. Armed rebels face national armies. For a long time, these countries had French troops stationed in their countries, but after the coups, the French have been asked to withdraw their forces from the region. Burkina Faso, Male and Niger felt that the presence of French troops did not help much in controlling the situation.
It is to be noted that these three countries and other in this part of Africa, south of the Sahara, have been former French colonies. They are part of the Francophone countries. But as a former colonial power, France had carried too much historical baggage to be of any help in stabilising the political situation. The big unstated problem was the challenge posed by militant groups with a religious orientation, attacking minority groups and trying to impose authoritarian regimes.
The armies in these countries, which were mainly national armies that managed the colonial states that emerged at the time of decolonisation, were more involved in defending the state’s interests and avoid sectarian conflicts. This is also the reason that those in power in Burkina Faso, Male and Niger have leaned towards Russia for arms and men – mostly private armies from Russia – to fight the armed rebels. This development of course brings its own set of problems, but that is another issue.
Meanwhile, these three states believe that Algeria is supporting the Islamic militant groups. And the matter came to a head when Algeria shot down a Malian drone.
These three Sahel states have termed it a violation of international law, claiming that the drone was within the territory of Male. The three states have recalled their envoys to Algeria, which created a diplomatic breach of a serious kind.
It seems that the downing of the drone was a pretext for these countries to snap the ties with the big neighbour to the north. What is interesting is the fact that for nearly a decade and more, Algeria fought a traumatic civil war with the Islamic Salvation Front in the 1990s, in which thousands of Algerians had lost their lives on both sides.
But the secular forces in Algeria did not give up, and they had succeeded in keeping the religious forces at bay. Algeria had fought the successor group of Islamic Salvation Front. So, it would seem ironic that Algeria should support Islamic armed rebels in Sahel, as claimed by Burkina Faso, Male and Niger. Algeria had been a deal-maker in the conflict between Male and Tuareg rebel group in the north of Male. It is a border region between Algeria and Male. So, the trigger for the conflict is immediate.
According to an assessment of Global Centre for Responsibility to Protect, 2.8 million people have been displaced due to internal conflicts between the armies and the armed Islamic groups, and of them 2.1 million are in Burkina Faso. There is demand from rights groups that military-ruled governments in the region violate human rights through forced arrests, the Islamic insurgent groups target civilian groups. The three governments have formed a military alliance, and they have withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States in January this year.
This has not helped because there are not many other states which could help in resolving conflict situations. There are complaints from international rights groups that the armies in control in these countries violate human rights and target civilians, in the same manner that the armed rebels do.