Working towards a climate-resilient future

A recent conference ‘India 2047: Building a Climate-Resilient Future’ brought together leading experts in climate science, public health, medicine, labour, business, agriculture, and urban planning for a series of interdisciplinary dialogues on advancing climate resilience. The conference, according to its website, addressed the effects of extreme climatic events such as extreme heat intensifying across the Global South – particularly in India – with far-reaching impacts on the environment, economy, and society demanding urgent, evidence-based solutions.

Startlingly, as an analysis in the ScienceAdviser pointed out, at this conference, scientists said that despite its extreme heat waves, the country’s decades-long warming trend amounts to half the global average. The analysis goes on to highlight a surprising statistic. On a world map showing how 2024 temperatures deviated from a historical baseline, many countries were coloured deep red, denoting an increase of 1°C to 2°C. But one large, pale spot stood out in the tropics. As Indians gird themselves for what could be a third summer in a row of extreme heat, the analysis says, they might be surprised to hear their country is warming more slowly than many others. Last year, India saw its highest recorded temperature and its longest spell of heat waves. But annual mean temperatures have risen by less than 0.7°C since 1901—about half the global average. Scientists do not fully understand why.

Key learnings from the conference were summarized by its Scientific Committee and put out on the conference website. The warming over the subcontinent over the next few decades is likely to be much faster than what has been experienced in the past. Rainfall will continue to become more intense, but more sporadic. Climate scientists can work together to improve weather and climate forecasts – of the onset of the monsoon, for example, or of peak temperatures during the pre-monsoon season. But there are limitations to their skill in predicting weather and climate, and surprises are inevitable. The takeaway lesson is that the country must begin to prepare for new conditions never seen before across the subcontinent – and that preparation must begin now. One way to prepare is to make sure that the forecasts from climate science are effective for the end-users, who have distinct needs and priorities. Preparing for climate change means developing forecasting tools that are customized to their specific contexts. And this will lead to more relevant and actionable plans for adaptation.

In the health sector, the conference found that progress has been made in data collection, but significant unknowns remain regarding the liveability in extreme heat conditions. The current understanding of mortality and heat exposure at the city scale is crude, and there is a pressing need for more granular data to identify those most at risk, but experts know enough to guide sensible public health decisions already. Health data is fragmented but there are encouraging efforts across India to digitize and integrate health records. Discussion groups identified the key value of a timely census for accurate epidemiological estimates of climate impacts on health. In general, there is much uncertainty about long term health outcomes, since there are overlapping challenges that intersect in synergistic ways – a key example is nutrition, non-communicable diseases, and susceptibility to infectious diseases.

Workers are already adapting to worsening heat conditions and have begun organizing in response to these challenges. However, discussants agreed that broader social dialogues between government entities, businesses, and labour groups remain a priority, and it is critical to include workers in the conversation. Sector-specific triggers could be considered to capture the full spectrum of worker impacts. More research is needed to understand worker-level heat exposure. Also, the built environment operates at multiple scales, including buildings, urban design, and urban planning. Policy, market forces, and education each play a crucial role in shaping climate-responsive infrastructure. Innovations and solutions must be contextualized in all the various contexts of India.

Across groups, the conference sessions identified challenges associated with differing timescales of priorities, where long-term sustainability may be at odds with short-term needs. Experts at this convening included government, academia, civil society, and the private sector, aiming to foster collaboration, bridge critical knowledge gaps, and shape actionable research and policy frameworks for a sustainable and climate-resilient future.