Trust in America virtually zero over Iran nuclear deal talks

The situation in this region might have been very different if during his first term in office Donald Trump had not withdrawn the US from the 2015 six-party deal to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for lifting sanctions. If Iran had abided by its commitments – which it did until 2019 – Iran’s nuclear programme would have remained stuck in the past. Iran would have been enriching uranium to 3.67 per cent for use in power plants, its stockpile would have remained at 300 kilograms, and its centrifuges would have been old models. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would have continued to monitor Iran’s facilities under the most intrusive regime ever imposed and carried out constant inspections.

Sanctions connected with the nuclear programme would have been lifted as they were partially from January 2016 until May 2018 when Trump withdrew the US from the agreement. During this brief period of relaxation, Iran’s sagging economy grew by 12.5 per cent and Iran’s oil exports grew to $47 billion, $5 billion more than in the year before the deal. Iran’s sale of carpets to the US and exports to Europe grew. On the political front, Iran opened relations with the US and Europe and improved its standing in the region where trust in Tehran had slumped.

Thanks to Trump, Iran increased enrichment to 20 and 60 per cent, the latter near the 90 per cent level needed for weapons, and boosted its overall stockpile to 8,294 kilos, installed state-of the art centrifuges for enrichment, and curbed IAEA monitoring and inspections. While sanctions have been amplified, they have also been eroded, and Iran has strengthened diplomatic relations with regional powers while cultivating ties to China, Russia, India, and other countries.

While Iranian and US envoys have held two rounds of indirect negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme and a third has been set for April 26th, a new deal will have to take into consideration the advances made by Iran since Trump pulled out. Ahead of Saturday’s round, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi – who took part – warned that Iran is close to having the ability to make nuclear weapons. He told the French daily Le Monde, “It’s like a jigsaw puzzle. They have the pieces, and one day they can put them together. There is a way to go to achieve this, but they are not far from it. We have to accept that. In the last four years, we have seen a remarkable acceleration.”

The IAEA estimates Iran has accumulated enough 60 per cent enriched uranium to enrich to 90 per cent and build at least six nuclear bombs. Thanks to Trump. Trust remains non-existent, particularly in Tehran. During these talks between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s man has been inconsistent. While the first round on April 12th was deemed “constructive” by both sides, ahead of the second round, Witkoff flip-flopped. Having agreed that Iran could continue “enrichment at 3.67 per cent for civil purposes,” he posted on social media on the 15th that “Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponisation programme.”

Iran has repeatedly said over many years that it has no intention of manufacturing nuclear weapons and the IAEA has reported that it has not done so. Witkoff also demanded that Iran allow “verification” of its ballistic missile arsenal, a demand Iran has rejected. Tensions ratcheted up after March 30th when Trump threatened to bomb Iran if no agreement has been achieved.

Araghchi said Iran is prepared to address US concerns about its nuclear programme but would not discuss its right to enrich uranium for civil purposes. This right was granted in 1968 when Tehran signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. It must be pointed out that the US gave Iran its first nuclear reactor in 1958 under the US Eisenhower administration’s “Atoms for Peace” policy.

If talks progress to detailed technical levels, it is doubtful that Witkoff, as Trump’s envoy to multiple crises, will have the time and expertise to deal with Iran’s nuclear programme.Witkoff is a property developer worth an estimated $2 billion and a Trump golf buddy. Although Witkoff has no diplomatic experience, Trump made him envoy in ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel and Trump’s contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war.

Israel observed a two-month ceasefire in Gaza from January 19th, the day before Trump re-entered the White House, until March 18th, but has not halted its attacks or blockade on Gaza since then and has refused to ceasefire. While Trump boasts that Witkoff has a “great friendship” with Putin, his war on Ukraine continues.

Since Trump pulled out of the Iran deal, the political situation in the region has changed considerably. During both the first Trump administration, the presidency of Joe Biden, and the first weeks of Trump’s second term, the US has demonstrated that it is not a reliable partner, opening the door to China and Russia. This culminated in China-brokered Saudi-Iranian reconciliation in March 2023 after six years of estrangement. Total US political and military support for Israel’s brutal war on Gaza triggered by Hamas’ October 7th, 2023, has angered both Arab rulers and the Arab people. It is notable that Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister Prince Khaled Bin Salman paid a visit to Tehran – the first in decades by such a senior official -– ahead of the second round of nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington. At the same time, Russia offered to mediate in the currently Oman-brokered indirect talks between the US and Iran. Following Araghchi’s visit to Moscow ahead of the second round, Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov declared, “The Russian Federation remains ready to do everything within our capabilities to contribute to the settlement of the situation by political and diplomatic means.” His statement came in response to the suggestion by an Iranian lawmaker that Russia and China could become joint guarantors of a new deal between the US and Iran. Thanks to erratic Trump external guarantees could be necessary.