India, Pakistan ties tense after terror attack in Pahalgam

The terrorist attack in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir in India on Wednesday, in which 26 tourists were killed, has pushed India and Pakistan into an attack mode diplomatically. India said the terrorists were from Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which is one of the banned organisations, operating from Pakistan. The responsibility for the attack was however claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), which Indian officials believe to be a proxy front of LeT. Pakistan has denied any connection with the terrorist group, and it had condemned the terrorist attack.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was on an official visit to Saudi Arabia, cut short his visit and returned to India. Soon after he came back he held a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security comprising Defence Minister Raj Nath Singh, Home Minister Amit Shah, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. The committee announced that the 1960 Indus Water Treaty will be held in abeyance, citizens of Pakistan on a visit to India will have to return to Pakistan, and the military advisers in the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi have been declared personae non gratae.

The border-crossing at Wagah in Punjab between the two countries has been closed, and the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) visas, which allowed members to freely move in the member-countries, has been suspended for Pakistani nationals.

Pakistan in turn has announced retaliatory measures on its part. It had suspended trade between the two countries, suspended the Simla Agreement of 1972, and closed the border for travel between India and Pakistan.

The two countries have had a troubled relationship ever since they became independent in 1947. They fought wars in 1965, 1971 and 1999. And the bone of contention has been Jammu and Kashmir.

In a recent speech addressing non-resident Pakistanis, Chief of the Army Staff Asim Munir had described Kashmir as the “jugular vein” of Pakistan, and he had harped on the differences of identity based on religion between the two countries, with Pakistan as a Muslim country and India as Hindu.

India is home to around 15 million Muslims, and there are minuscule religious minorities – Hindus and Christians – in Pakistan. Tensions between India and Pakistan are always a matter of concern to the world because the two are nuclear-weapon states since 1998.

There is however a power asymmetry between the two countries in many respects. India is now one of the big economies in the world, occupying the fifth position. Pakistan’s economy is in an unstable state for the last couple of years. Saudi Arabia had recently provided a financial package for the country.

In Pakistan, the army has always played a prominent role, especially when there was a political crisis in the country. That is why, General’s Munir’s statement has acquired greater importance in the context of the sudden deterioration in India-Pakistan relations. The general perception is that Pakistan army has the final say in matters of national security.

Pakistan’s government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is a coalition government of PML-N and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). It has been formed to counter former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI).

The Indian government too is a coalition led by the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Modi. Modi and the BJP are known for their hardline stance against terrorism and against Pakistan. South Asia is considered one of the hotspots in the world. The expectation is that the two sides would not want a breakdown in ties between the two countries.